Interesting...dbostedo, you'd have much happy on a windblown MM day.
This last week was looking into hitting Mammoth if the trough next week actually sets up as a great Basin Tonapah Low. It is in April that happens most often at Mammoth that has potential to create incredible windblown powder conditions if enough snow falls that with such a low is certain to blow around for days. But the $140 lift ticket with a 600 mile $100 gas bill $60 lodging has me only likely to commit if it looks more certain. I'd ski a last day at Heavenly then overnight cheap in Gardnerville. Next morning up at dawn drive the 2+ hours and then after the ski day may or may not linger for photo reasons for a day/night at Mono Lake and if I stay anywhere to the south disperse camping inside my Forester is my game. Would be nice to do some POV GoPro videos at MM with windblown powder as my Santa Anas will be an optimal fun tool. Plus there are my Daymakers and skins that deserve attention up on Virginia Lakes Road after a breeze arise at Mono mid morning. And as a retired senior I'm really not as much a peon as I make out.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
253 PM PDT Sat Apr 10 2021
Winds will be increasing on Tuesday as well, as the cold front moves
through the area. The southern Sierra Front, especially south of
Highway 50 and along US-395 could get pretty gusty on Tuesday
afternoon as the front moves through the region with gusts up to
40 mph for wind prone areas.
We have continued to mention the chance of showers on Tuesday and
Wednesday as well, with cold air aloft creating instability enough
for rain and snow pellet showers. We could even see a few
isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon/evening hours on those
days due to the strong instability in the atmosphere. As of now,
the thunder chances have been left out of the forecast, with the
chances less than 10%.
The cut-off low wobbles around the Great Basin through the end of
the week. There is still much uncertainty in how long this will
stick around. If it moves off to the east and allows for ridging
to build back again along the coast, we will see warming
temperatures and clearing skies. If the low remains longer, we
will see a slower warm up and lingering instability showers
through the end of the week. -Hoon
Thursday April 8, 2021 Posted at 8:49 am by Howard
snippet:
Over the next 7 days, this PV resets south of the Bering Sea and the result is a positive tilt ridge into Western Canada. The return flow over that ridge may dig a trof into the Great Basin toward the middle of next week. That pattern would bring cooling, wind and the chance of some light snow. Now, the NWS is going with persistence through mid week next week, as there are not enough ensemble members to challenge the sensible weather pattern we currently have. Looking at the MJO phase space, it shows a robust MJO moving into phase 7. This suggests that our exceptionally warm weather may not last beyond early next week. It also suggests in its composites, this time of the year, precipitation over Northern CA later next week. So, odds for a change in the pattern is being supported by the MJO for at least cooling out west.
This last week was looking into hitting Mammoth if the trough next week actually sets up as a great Basin Tonapah Low. It is in April that happens most often at Mammoth that has potential to create incredible windblown powder conditions if enough snow falls that with such a low is certain to blow around for days. But the $140 lift ticket with a 600 mile $100 gas bill $60 lodging has me only likely to commit if it looks more certain. I'd ski a last day at Heavenly then overnight cheap in Gardnerville. Next morning up at dawn drive the 2+ hours and then after the ski day may or may not linger for photo reasons for a day/night at Mono Lake and if I stay anywhere to the south disperse camping inside my Forester is my game. Would be nice to do some POV GoPro videos at MM with windblown powder as my Santa Anas will be an optimal fun tool. Plus there are my Daymakers and skins that deserve attention up on Virginia Lakes Road after a breeze arise at Mono mid morning. And as a retired senior I'm really not as much a peon as I make out.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
253 PM PDT Sat Apr 10 2021
Winds will be increasing on Tuesday as well, as the cold front moves
through the area. The southern Sierra Front, especially south of
Highway 50 and along US-395 could get pretty gusty on Tuesday
afternoon as the front moves through the region with gusts up to
40 mph for wind prone areas.
We have continued to mention the chance of showers on Tuesday and
Wednesday as well, with cold air aloft creating instability enough
for rain and snow pellet showers. We could even see a few
isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon/evening hours on those
days due to the strong instability in the atmosphere. As of now,
the thunder chances have been left out of the forecast, with the
chances less than 10%.
The cut-off low wobbles around the Great Basin through the end of
the week. There is still much uncertainty in how long this will
stick around. If it moves off to the east and allows for ridging
to build back again along the coast, we will see warming
temperatures and clearing skies. If the low remains longer, we
will see a slower warm up and lingering instability showers
through the end of the week. -Hoon
Thursday April 8, 2021 Posted at 8:49 am by Howard
snippet:
Over the next 7 days, this PV resets south of the Bering Sea and the result is a positive tilt ridge into Western Canada. The return flow over that ridge may dig a trof into the Great Basin toward the middle of next week. That pattern would bring cooling, wind and the chance of some light snow. Now, the NWS is going with persistence through mid week next week, as there are not enough ensemble members to challenge the sensible weather pattern we currently have. Looking at the MJO phase space, it shows a robust MJO moving into phase 7. This suggests that our exceptionally warm weather may not last beyond early next week. It also suggests in its composites, this time of the year, precipitation over Northern CA later next week. So, odds for a change in the pattern is being supported by the MJO for at least cooling out west.
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