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Midwest 2023-2024 Midwest Ski Resort/Conditions/Meetups

focker

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I know these are well established charts from NOAA, but I think they are horribly misleading. For example the temperature chart has the Midwest in orange which looks bad but actually means NOAA is still predicting its more likely to be average or cold this winter. On top of that, the long term predictions are horribly inaccurate.

So I suggest ignoring these charts entirely

Yeah who knows what the season will be like but there's ample proof that El Nino leads to warmer temps on average in the midwest...
 

dbostedo

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NOAA is still predicting its more likely to be average or cold this winter
No, they aren't. They're saying it's likely to be warmer than average. That's what the color means. Granted, it's a percentage likelihood that it will be warmer than average, so it could be colder than average. But it's unlikely to be. NOAA is definitely not predicting "average or cold[er]" this winter for the midwest.
 

focker

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As much as I love skiing (and I LOVE skiing) this late fall weather has been absolutely amazing. Going for a 3 mile walk with the wife here shortly. Bonfire later with a cocktail or two.

We'll be skiing within 2 weeks here in MN, maybe less.
 

whitefeathers

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This warm weather made it nice to finish up yardwork for the season! I really appreciate not freezing while cleaning up leaves.
I bet by Friday/Saturday Wild mountain will open back up.
 

Nathanvg

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No, they aren't. They're saying it's likely to be warmer than average. That's what the color means. Granted, it's a percentage likelihood that it will be warmer than average, so it could be colder than average. But it's unlikely to be. NOAA is definitely not predicting "average or cold[er]" this winter for the midwest.
no, it's not saying that... Look at the color code. The chance of temperatures being "above normal" in the upper Midwest is 40-50%. Odds are 50-60% that the temperatures will not be above normal. Therefore, above normal is unlikely. If you ask me, the chart is designed to make it appear they have a valuable prediction when they do not.
 

dbostedo

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The chance of temperatures being "above normal" in the upper Midwest is 40-50%. Odds are 50-60% that the temperatures will not be above normal. Therefore, above normal is unlikely.
So I agree with you that you could say that "its more likely to be average or cold this winter", if you're adding the odds for both average and colder, and comparing to warmer. But I don't think that's the same as saying "above normal is unlikely".

As near as I can tell if I've got this right, the three categories are Above (A), Normal (N), and Below (B). The default is a 33.33% chance of any of the three. If that holds in the forecast, then that would give a white E rating to a zone, since above, below, and normal have equal chances of occurrence.

Saying the upper midwest is 40-50% likely to be above normal, means they're giving it 33.33% to be around normal, and that leaves a chance of 16.67% - 26.67% of being below normal. So above normal is the most likely outcome, even though there is a chance of normal or even colder temperatures.

FWIW, and I assume you've seen this, but I bet most folks haven't, here's the explanation:

I think the usual interpretation that "NOAA is predicting a warmer than average winter in the upper midwest" is correct based on the map; but it acknowledges the lack of accuracy and difficulty of prediction by including some chance of "colder" even then they predict "warmer".
 

Nathanvg

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So I agree with you that you could say that "its more likely to be average or cold this winter", if you're adding the odds for both average and colder, and comparing to warmer. But I don't think that's the same as saying "above normal is unlikely".

As near as I can tell if I've got this right, the three categories are Above (A), Normal (N), and Below (B). The default is a 33.33% chance of any of the three. If that holds in the forecast, then that would give a white E rating to a zone, since above, below, and normal have equal chances of occurrence.

Saying the upper midwest is 40-50% likely to be above normal, means they're giving it 33.33% to be around normal, and that leaves a chance of 16.67% - 26.67% of being below normal. So above normal is the most likely outcome, even though there is a chance of normal or even colder temperatures.

FWIW, and I assume you've seen this, but I bet most folks haven't, here's the explanation:

I think the usual interpretation that "NOAA is predicting a warmer than average winter in the upper midwest" is correct based on the map; but it acknowledges the lack of accuracy and difficulty of prediction by including some chance of "colder" even then they predict "warmer".
Yeah, I think you mostly have that right. The only exception being that the following statement is inaccurate: "NOAA is predicting a warmer than average winter in the upper midwest" because they are explicitly saying that it is 40-50% likely.

The other factor to consider is if such a prediction has any relevance? I haven't located the NOAA data on temperature but we can use the Keweenaw snowfall data to illustrate the same point. The average snowfall is 278. To use NOAAs categories: below is 188-270", normal is 271-306 and above is 307-326. If you look at those ranges, a below normal year could be just 7" less than average. (just 2.5% below average) That's a worthless prediction IMO. The odds of a 25% reduction in snowfall or more would be interesting but I suspect they would be around 10% based on historical data and NOAAs prediciton would be something like 10.2% chance (not a significant prediction)
 

Beach Bum

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Lack of storms or precip is frustrating especially when both main models were sniffing something out around the TG holiday until around last Wed when that went poof. Warmer temps and more of a seasonal flow than both initially predicted.

Still, at least it looks pretty cold the last week of the month and hopefully bunch of resorts start making snow.

No clue what will happen first few weeks of December but I'll be depressed if we're in the 50s or higher in much of the Midwest. For me I don't do much until early Jan but with El Nino I'll be nervous and annoyed until real winter proves me wrong.
 

focker

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This warm weather made it nice to finish up yardwork for the season! I really appreciate not freezing while cleaning up leaves.
I bet by Friday/Saturday Wild mountain will open back up.

Looks like they'll be able to fire up the gun again on Friday early AM. I'd think they'll have the park back open by Saturday.
 

whitefeathers

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Wild mountain is planning on it. Yesterday afternoon I saw on Instagram they have a Rail jam scheduled for Saturday late afternoon.
 
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Dwight

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Better than expected snow making, I believe. It still continues and gets colder too. I hit the hill this Wed night for Ski Patrol refresher and then the hill opens for good Dec 1st.
 

wallyk

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I know these are well established charts from NOAA, but I think they are horribly misleading. For example the temperature chart has the Midwest in orange which looks bad but actually means NOAA is still predicting its more likely to be average or cold this winter. On top of that, the long term predictions are horribly inaccurate.

So I suggest ignoring these charts entirely

These data which supports these charts are widely used by different industries to help provide and shape forward guidance. You may be surprised about what industries use this information to help with risk management decisions. While the 90 day outlook can vary, historically the 30-45 day forward forecasts have a track record of being correct. El Nino cycles are historically not good for the northern US winter entertainment industry.
 

afski722

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Mt. Holly & Pine Knob in SE Michigan both opened today after a few cold nights last Thu and Fri evenings.

After a decent initial snowmaking run for the places up north after Thanksgiving, and some lake effect currently, and another good snowmaking run forecasted Mon-Tue-Wed.

I expect to see some of the usual suspects in the Northern Lower - Nubs, Highlands, Mountain likely open on limited terrain the weekend of 12/1.
 

focker

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With these cold temps hills should be able to open a run every 2-3 days I would think, maybe quicker.
 
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Dwight

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Better than expected snow making, I believe. It still continues and gets colder too. I hit the hill this Wed night for Ski Patrol refresher and then the hill opens for good Dec 1st.
I almost showed up a week early. Dec 6 is the refresher. That would have been awkward.

Right now looking at web cams, the smaller hills will almost have everything open by the weekend.


Granite Peak opens tomorrow.
 

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