Anybody else getting a sneaking feeling that the season isn't going to work out?

[FlyingAce]

My understanding is that for about 3 months after someone has recovered from COVID they are considered immune for getting it again. After 3 months there have been reported cases of people getting infected again. It’s pretty rare though. It’s generally thought that after COVID symptoms start one is no longer contagious after 10 days as long as symptoms are improving and there have been no fevers for 24 hours without using any fever reducing medication. That’s the CDC recommendation for isolation and the recommendation I’ve been providing to hundreds of patient’s I’ve been caring for with confirmed COVID or suspected COVID.

My husband is a physician scientist and that is his understanding of how the virus works too according to the CDC. But the scientist in him thinks it is still too early to conclude that IS how the virus works. So he has been recommending his patients and staff to isolate for at least 14 days, don’t assume you are not contagious, get tested and even with a negative test, isolate for an additional 7-14 days and test again, before thinking you are safe for yourself and for others around you. And continue to keep that mask on, stay away from others and wash your hands. Not pick and choose, but all 3 goes hand in hand. The virus does not discriminate, nor is anyone guaranteed immunity. It’s better to be safe than sorry.

 

[James]

Do you have a source to support that there are different SARS-CoV-2 strains that have different virulence properties? From what I've been reading it appears to mutate relatively slowly compared to other viruses, the mutations that are most likely to occur produce a less virulent virus and the most potentially significant mutation might not make a significant difference in the disease. Here's one of the sources I read: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02544-6. There's still a lot unknown about the genetic mutations of the virus and how they might or might not affect clinical disease. I think you're statements are premature and presumptive at best.

I don’t think there’s any evidence at all of a new strain.
The mink situation in Denmark and the Netherlands, plus other producers is very concerning though as the minks got it from humans, now it’s being passed back to humans. That has the potential for some recombination. Denmark ordered millions of minks killed, now it’s caused a political crisis.

Report last week from the EU ecdc-

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/RRA-SARS-CoV-2-in-mink-12-nov-2020.pdf

 

[Prosper]

My husband is a physician scientist and that is his understanding of how the virus works too according to the CDC. But the scientist in him thinks it is still too early to conclude that IS how the virus works. So he has been recommending his patients and staff to isolate for at least 14 days, don’t assume you are not contagious, get tested and even with a negative test, isolate for an additional 7-14 days and test again, before thinking you are safe for yourself and for others around you. And continue to keep that mask on, stay away from others and wash your hands. Not pick and choose, but all 3 goes hand in hand. The virus does not discriminate, nor is anyone guaranteed immunity. It’s better to be safe than sorry.

Yes, definitely better to err on the side of caution. I frequently tell patients that even if they’re improving they really should consider staying at home until the symptoms have completely resolved since others will certainly not want to be around someone who looks like he or she is sick even if all three criteria have been met for breaking isolation. And definitely practice good infection control and prevention even if asymptomatic.

As far as retesting goes, since genetic material can remain in the body for up to 3 months after an infection, PCR or genetic amplification retesting is not recommended for at least 3 months since the test is so sensitive and can detect even very small amounts of genetic material. I’m just a lowly primary care doc but that’s my understanding of why retesting is not recommended by the CDC to determine infectivity or when someone can break isolation.

 

[Prosper]

Show me where it says they don't need to wear masks in public or around vulnerable immune compromised people.. Seat belt and air bag analogies are fair, but second hand smoke, anti science denials, and the resistance to be inconvenienced while removing that threat to others around you in the lift line and on the chair is a better one here IMHO..

I should have been more clear in my post. I did not intend to suggest that those who have recently recovered from COVID should not wear masks or practice good infection control and prevention measures. We all need to continue being diligent in controlling the pandemic. I fully support and recommend everyone wearing masks at all times when around others in public places especially when around those who are especially vulnerable. Sorry that my post was not clear about that and left room for interpretation. To answer your question, there is no CDC, state or local public health recommendation that I’m aware of that endorses not wearing masks to prevent infection spread except in very rare circumstances.

Edited for clarity and to add additional points.

 

[raytseng]

I should have been more clear in my post. I did not intend to suggest that those who have recently recovered from COVID should not wear masks or practice good infection control and prevention measures. We all need to continue being diligent in controlling the pandemic. I fully support and recommend everyone wearing masks at all times when around others in public places especially when around those who are especially vulnerable. Sorry that my post was not clear about that and left room for interpretation. To answer your question, there is no CDC, state or local public health recommendation that I’m aware of that endorses not wearing masks to prevent infection spread except in very rare circumstances.

Edited for clarity and to add additional points.

Yea, remember we are down this rabbithole due to the proposal that there should be a Post-Covid survivor's Party-On section of the mountain with no masks, no restrictions, open bar.

 

[tball]

I have a sneaking feeling this season is going to end well. I can't wait for April, May, and June skiing!

 

[Wilhelmson]

The positivity rate is very dependent on "how you slice it". What positivity rate would you expect for the following sets of selecting who to test?

• People on respirators running a fever and coughing.
• People exhibiting one or more symptoms of COVID
• People who have been traced to have been in contact with a COVID infected person.
• People in high risk populations
• People who have been wearing masks and self isolating
• A completely random sampling of the general population.

So 20% is the same as 1% in my town? I don't think so.

 

[Dougb]

Heavenly’s post to their Instagram feed this morning.

 

[Tex]

Did you ever consider that the mountains ARE home for some of us?

When I said "home", I meant your house, not geographically where you live.

 

[AmyPJ]

When I said "home", I meant your house, not geographically where you live.

I get that. But I still deserve to feel safe when venturing OUT of my house, into my community, into my grocery store, and on my local ski hill. Having vacationers with cavalier attitudes about COVID coming into town is pretty maddening. We have enough of those living here as it is.

 

[Ron]

I had a trip all booked in New Mexico. Well they locked down, so had to cancel. Now I got a trip booked in colorado. My guess they will not lock down, why? Money talks and BS walks. Too much money at stake in CO, I would be shocked if they locked down. They seem to be all over this and dealing with it in the appropriate manor, be reasonable lowering risk of spread, but don't kill the business and fun for those willing to take the risk. If you are worried, stay home!

That's nice of you to say. Did you ever consider that the mountains ARE home for some of us?

@Tex I think you are missing the point that we, those who do live in the mountains and our homes are in the mountains are the ones who will pay for your risk taking. Sorry but please don't come to my town if you are taking risks. I'm pretty sure @AmyPJ feels the same way. I look at it as "if you are taking risks, please stay home".

 

[AmyPJ]

I don’t think there’s any evidence at all of a new strain.
The mink situation in Denmark and the Netherlands, plus other producers is very concerning though as the minks got it from humans, now it’s being passed back to humans. That has the potential for some recombination. Denmark ordered millions of minks killed, now it’s caused a political crisis.

Report last week from the EU ecdc-

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/RRA-SARS-CoV-2-in-mink-12-nov-2020.pdf

There are huge mink farms not 5 miles from my house. Heck, make that two miles. Utah has a ton of mink farms. I've been kind of wondering about the possible ramifications of it bounding between mink and humans.

 

[AmyPJ]

@Tex I think you are missing the point that we, those who do live in the mountains and our homes are in the mountains are the ones who will pay for your risk taking. Sorry but please don't come to my town if you are taking risks. I'm pretty sure @AmyPJ feels the same way. I look at it as "if you are taking risks, please stay home".

Yes. I am planning to travel, by CAR, to ski Targhee and hopefully Big Sky later this winter. Will be staying in a cabin with just my husband, bringing most meals, getting take out for other meals or grab n go from grocery. In other words, mitigating the risks the same way as I do at home, with the added benefit of being able to pull the plug and hop in the car and be home in a few hours if one starts feeling ill. I'm in some ways really surprised that states haven't restricted more travel from across borders, because those skiers who fly here to Utah to ski, and end up sick, and possibly REALLY sick, will take up hospital bed space. Those same people are far more likely to be dining out and hitting a bar.

Also, airplanes might be relatively safe (safer than indoor dining) but it's the airports that are worrisome, not the airplanes. My travel experience in July was living proof.

 

[Ron]

There are huge mink farms not 5 miles from my house. Heck, make that two miles. Utah has a ton of mink farms. I've been kind of wondering about the possible ramifications of it bounding between mink and humans.

Nearly 10,000 minks die after Covid-19 outbreak at Utah fur farms

Nearly 10,000 of farmed minks in Utah have died of Covid-19, but humans are not at risk of the outbreak, a state veterinarian said.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[DanoT]

I’m not worried about the staff at ski areas; I worry more about the general skiing population and about the Covid positivity rate.

I AM worried about staff at ski areas, especially those living in Staff Housing where there are common kitchen and bathroom areas. Hopefully ski area managers already have a Quarantine Housing Plan in place that can limit outbreaks and virus spreading.

 

[RobSN]

Nearly 10,000 minks die after Covid-19 outbreak at Utah fur farms

Nearly 10,000 of farmed minks in Utah have died of Covid-19, but humans are not at risk of the outbreak, a state veterinarian said.

www.nbcnews.com

Just an fyi, the veterinarian said in October that "humans are not at risk of the outbreak", but we now know from Denmark more recently that humans are at risk of Covid from minks.

 

[RobSN]

Heavenly’s post to their Instagram feed this morning.

View attachment 115380

Has anyone else noticed that the two skiers look to have the same stance as speed skaters? I'm pretty sure it's an optical illusion

 

[James]

There are huge mink farms not 5 miles from my house. Heck, make that two miles. Utah has a ton of mink farms. I've been kind of wondering about the possible ramifications of it bounding between mink and humans.

Stay away from those minks and mink farmers, mink farmer associates...

Nearly 10,000 minks die after Covid-19 outbreak at Utah fur farms

Nearly 10,000 of farmed minks in Utah have died of Covid-19, but humans are not at risk of the outbreak, a state veterinarian said.

www.nbcnews.com

Guy is 100% wrong. SARS-CoV-2 absolutely can pass from minks to humans.

 

[AmyPJ]

Stay away from those minks and mink farmers, mink farmer associates...

Guy is 100% wrong. SARS-CoV-2 absolutely can pass from minks to humans.

If only I knew who they were. They don't wear clothing that says "mink farmer" on it.

It's interesting that the mink farm mass fatalities from COVID have hardly made the news here.

 

[Ron]

Stay away from those minks and mink farmers, mink farmer associates...

Guy is 100% wrong. SARS-CoV-2 absolutely can pass from minks to humans.

Yeah, I saw that in the summary and was thinking there's no way he can claim they are harmless...