Avalanche season 2022-23 has begun

[Tricia]

I'll just emphasize....
Tricia is a chicken.

 

[SBrown]

I'll just emphasize....
Tricia is a chicken.

So am I!

 

[4ster]

I'll just emphasize....
Tricia is a chicken.

“The more I learn the scareder I get “

 

[Tricia]

So am I!

To my earlier point, which was more of a question than a judgement...
If Sierra Avalanche Center is posting about the high risk with the storms, snow pack. layers and other such things,...Why would someone attempt to go out there?
I'm not judging. I'm questioning because I just don't know.

The bean in my brain says.... SAC says its risky so why risk it?
If I were a BC skier I'd not risk it.

That's just me. ...
I'm a chicken.

 

[SBrown]

To my earlier point, which was more of a question than a judgement...
If Sierra Avalanche Center is posting about the high risk with the storms, snow pack. layers and other such things,...Why would someone attempt to go out there?
I'm not judging. I'm questioning because I just don't know.

The bean in my brain says.... SAC says its risky so why risk it?
If I were a BC skier I'd not risk it.

That's just me. ...
I'm a chicken.

Because it is physically impossible for low-angle (< 30°) terrain to slide. That said, you can be in low angle but underneath avalanche terrain, and all sorts of other issues, so yes, you need to know what you are doing and stay away from that stuff. I ski some zones where there is just nothing more than about 28°, nothing overhanging, and it's at least as safe as driving on I-70.

AND, yes, some people are idiots. Others are ignorant. That's just part of life.

 

[Tricia]

AND, yes, some people are idiots. Others are ignorant. That's just part of life.

Which is also part of the I-70 factor.

 

[jmeb]

Even on High Danger days, you can always find safe terrain on low angled slopes not locally connected to steeper slopes.

Directly from the Utah Avalanche Center: https://utahavalanchecenter.org/avalanche-danger-scale

Only in very rare circumstances—typically under Extreme ratings —have I seen centers advocate complete backcountry avoidance.

If we want to be consistent in this forum with how avalanches professionals talk about these problems: In North America, forecast centers rate the avalanche hazard: which is a combination of likelihood and consequence. “Risk” is a matter of exposure based on individual terrain decisions and is not forecasted.

Here is a summary from one of the authors of the conceptual model of avalanche hazard which is the basis of the North American avalanche danger scale.

Thinking in Risk - Powder Cloud

Thinking in risk means to look at your decision-making process through the lens of probability and consequence.

thepowdercloud.com

 

[tball]

Yikes! That Heavenly group was really lucky to all come out alive. Two out of three were caught.

Avalanche off Monument Peak

3 skiers triggered avalanche while skiing backside of Heavenly. First skier triggered avalanche below others which subsequently triggered 2 more above the other skiers involved. 2 of the 3 skiers were collected in the avalanche and suffered major injuries. No burials reported. Avalanche ran the...

www.sierraavalanchecenter.org

 

[Ken_R]

Directly from the Utah Avalanche Center: https://utahavalanchecenter.org/avalanche-danger-scale

Only in very rare circumstances—typically under Extreme ratings —have I seen centers advocate complete backcountry avoidance.

If we want to be consistent in this forum with how avalanches professionals talk about these problems: In North America, forecast centers rate the avalanche hazard: which is a combination of likelihood and consequence. “Risk” is a matter of exposure based on individual terrain decisions and is not forecasted.

Here is a summary from one of the authors of the conceptual model of avalanche hazard which is the basis of the North American avalanche danger scale.

Thinking in Risk - Powder Cloud

Thinking in risk means to look at your decision-making process through the lens of probability and consequence.

thepowdercloud.com

For other people reading this:

The problem is that on almost any given day you can find a spot in the Colorado backcountry where if you drop in you will most likely trigger an avalanche. That is why it is key to read the forecaster's text and explanations not just look at the overall forecast which mainly talk about how widespread are the dangerous conditions or "hazards". That is the real challenge of the current forecasting system in place. How to make a complex problem easy to read and to disseminate the message effectively.

There are a lot of different types of backcountry travelers that get into an avalanche.

Here are a few:

1. People that know the risk and accept the risk and go. Knowingly.

2. People that think they know the risk, accept it and go but then find out the hard way that the risk level they accepted was in fact MUCH higher than what they though it was and get in trouble.

3. People that have no clue about the risk they are accepting (unknowingly) and keep going until its too late.

And there is everything in between and sometimes you can be anyone of those 3 in the same day...

 

[SBrown]

For other people reading this:

The problem is that on almost any given day you can find a spot in the Colorado backcountry where if you drop in you will most likely trigger an avalanche. That is why...

... I am a chicken.

 

[locknload]

Big avalanche up at CMH in the powder high near Revelstoke. No details yet that I've seen. I'm done cat skiing up there with a couple operations and I found the guides to be incredibly competent, well-trained and risk averse. They let a few us sit in on their morning guide meeting when they discussed runs and options and they would close entire areas of their terrain BEFORE we ever got the Snow Cat to remove and temptation once they got out there. There was another instance where they called off a run after we heard too many "whumps" from the snowpack as we approached. If you want a haunting sound and feeling...hear a "whump" and then feel the entire snowpack settle..that will get your attention. Anyhow, they did a great job and I always felt safe when with them..but still..you never know. I practice risk avoidance when avvy conditions are trending up. Just removes the anxiety factor.

Revvy-CMH Avvy

 

[jmeb]

Tragic situation @ CMH.

For those curious, BC is experience a very odd snowpack for their area -- similar low probability, high consequence situations more commonly seen in continental climates. A once-in-twenty-year type event. Couple of useful blog posts from Avalanche Canada on the snowpack here: https://avalanche.ca/blogs

 

[SBrown]

Tragic situation @ CMH.

For those curious, BC is experience a very odd snowpack for their area -- similar low probability, high consequence situations more commonly seen in continental climates. A once-in-twenty-year type event. Couple of useful blog posts from Avalanche Canada on the snowpack here: https://avalanche.ca/blogs

Yeah I was about to point this out. Now they have to be chickens like us!

 

[4ster]

Now they have to be chickens like us!

I think incidents like these are extremely rare with heliski companies but they do happen & when they do it is taken very seriously, everyone takes a step back & gets a little chicken for awhile.t

 

[charlier]

Last week, I searched for the CAA incident report, but was not reported yet. I think that the official report us not finished due to multiple fatalities. Such an awful and sad event for the guests and guides.

 

[SBrown]

I think incidents like these are extremely rare with heliski companies but they do happen & when they do it is taken very seriously, everyone takes a step back & gets a little chicken for awhile.t

Oh for sure!! I have the utmost respect for all these guides etc ... just meaning that the big deep heavy snowpack they usually get is not as bomber this year, and it's like our cruddy crispy mysterious fragile chicken-inducing snowpack.

 

[twa2w]

Because it is physically impossible for low-angle (< 30°) terrain to slide. That said, you can be in low angle but underneath avalanche terrain, and all sorts of other issues, so yes, you need to know what you are doing and stay away from that stuff. I ski some zones where there is just nothing more than about 28°, nothing overhanging, and it's at least as safe as driving on I-70.

AND, yes, some people are idiots. Others are ignorant. That's just part of life.

Uh, i would disagree with you and so would Avalanche Canada
Most avalanches occur on slopes that have an incline of 30-45 degrees ‒ about the steepness of a black diamond run at a ski hill, and favourite terrain for backcountry skiers and riders. However, avalanches can happen on slopes as flat as 25 degrees and as steep as 60 degrees.

 

[SBrown]

Uh, i would disagree with you and so would Avalanche Canada
Most avalanches occur on slopes that have an incline of 30-45 degrees ‒ about the steepness of a black diamond run at a ski hill, and favourite terrain for backcountry skiers and riders. However, avalanches can happen on slopes as flat as 25 degrees and as steep as 60 degrees.

Ok, ok, yes, it's possible, but for the purposes of this discussion, simplification is best. It is highly unlikely that we will be worrying about a wet slab here in January, for instance. I was focused on the point that you can stay safe from certain hazards because of physics. The arcane stuff isn't important here.

 

[tball]

Tragic situation @ CMH.

For those curious, BC is experience a very odd snowpack for their area -- similar low probability, high consequence situations more commonly seen in continental climates. A once-in-twenty-year type event. Couple of useful blog posts from Avalanche Canada on the snowpack here: https://avalanche.ca/blogs

I wonder if they knew this isn't your typical year up there.

 

[jmeb]

I wonder if they knew this isn't your typical year up there.

No idea if the guest knew. The guides at CMH who are part of CAA and who work for an operation that submits and reads InfoEx daily were well aware.