Northern Rockies/Alberta Banff in April

[dovski]

Why do you think it would take 2 years after a vaccine was approved to inoculate enough people? I hadn't seen that as an estimate anywhere.

Nothing I've read indicates it will take anything like that long to manufacture enough vaccine. In terms of actually vaccinating people, there are some challenges to be overcome in terms of distribution, but assuming the vaccine can be delivered to the places it needs to be, it seems as though sufficient infrastructure exists to vaccinate people. For example, approx 50% of the US population receives the flu vaccine each year over the course of 3 or so months without overwhelming medical services providers.

I believe it was Fauci who said that but I also heard it from several other sources as well as from some family members in the medical field - apologies I do not have a specific article to source.

Essentially my logic breaks down like this:

• Once a vaccine is formally approved there is a ramp up time to scale production - this is the reason that many competing drug companies are partnering on the production of covid drugs as it can save time and money to leverage someone else's existing manufacturing infrastructure. Establishing the ability to manufacture a drug at scale (100s of millions of doses vs thousands) takes time.
• Depending on the drug itself there is also the time taken to manufacture it, you also need the packaging and in some cases climate controlled storage and transportation which also takes time to put in place.
• You also have to train medical professionals how to administer the drug, have distribution and massive scale logistics in place for mass inoculation of 100's of millions of people. This all takes time to put in place before you can start administering vaccines.
• Once this is in place it will then easily take a year or two to inoculate the entire population but with anti vaxxer sentiment we have our final challenge, the field of dreams situation, if you build it will they come. Simply put it is going to take time to educate the population on this vaccine and convince them to take the vaccine.

So when taking all the above into consideration, even with an approved vaccine it will easily take a year or two to get the majority of the population vaccinated and there will be a vocal minority who absolutely refuse. I hope these assumptions and logic a proven wrong and we get the vaccine much faster.

 

[babanff]

For those of you that are interested Alberta is testing a program where the test international visitors upon arrival at the Calgary and Edmonton International Airports and then test them again 48 hours later. Two clean tests and you do not need to quarantine. There is also talk of letting travelers test 48 hours before they travel to Canada and then test again at the airport. Yes the travel ban is still in effect with the US, but these new testing protocols are potentially a precursor to safely reopening the border.

If you are a Canadian ex-pat living in the US it turns out you and your family can still travel to Canada using the protocol described above. My sense is that by Jan/Feb the border with the US may actually reopen for everyone granted with safety protocols in place. Not sure how they would implement if you are driving across, but definitely quite achievable for air travel.

Looks like our April trip to Banff is likely a go now.

Just to clarify some things from what I've read that I would look into if I were you (fyi here's the pilot program details: https://www.alberta.ca/international-border-pilot-project.aspx).
* You will need to quarantine while you await test results (up to 48 hours), and then get tested again 6-7 days later.
* You need to remain in Alberta for 14 days upon arrival. Unclear if this means you can leave the country before those 14 days but the Alberta site does not make it sound like that is an option, so unless your trip is >14 days, you might not be able to participate. [EDIT: correction, sounds like you can leave before 14 days, just need to depart from Alberta]
* You need to be arriving on an international flight... ie if you're coming from US and you have a connection in Toronto, you can't participate in this program
* Yes available to citizens & permanent residents
* Also, not available in Edmonton... YYC and one land crossing only.

Also FYI asymptomatic testing is no longer available in Banff so not sure how to handle the 6-7 day follow-up testing requirement, might need to go to Calgary and pay?

 

[dovski]

Just to clarify some things from what I've read that I would look into if I were you (fyi here's the pilot program details: https://www.alberta.ca/international-border-pilot-project.aspx).
* You will need to quarantine while you await test results (up to 48 hours), and then get tested again 6-7 days later.
* You need to remain in Alberta for 14 days upon arrival. Unclear if this means you can leave the country before those 14 days but the Alberta site does not make it sound like that is an option, so unless your trip is >14 days, you might not be able to participate.
* You need to be arriving on an international flight... ie if you're coming from US and you have a connection in Toronto, you can't participate in this program
* Yes available to citizens & permanent residents

Also FYI asymptomatic testing is no longer available in Banff so not sure how to handle the 6-7 day follow-up testing requirement, might need to go to Calgary and pay?

Yes I am aware of all of these challenges and am hoping that they are ironed out by April. Our plan is to fly into Calgary, and hopefully by then they will accept certified test from the US so that we only need to pass a second test at the airport.

 

[Jilly]

This testing of international flights is just an experiment. The government is looking at ways to get the airline business on track. There is no guarantee that this will go beyond whatever the cut out date is. And as mentioned it's for international flights. So if anyone is considering using this method and driving....NO.

A few weeks ago I saw that 26 international flights had come into Canada and had Covid-19 cases on them. So the need to test AGAIN after a week is a must.

I would make sure that you can cancel the trip without cost or problems.

 

[Wade]

I believe it was Fauci who said that but I also heard it from several other sources as well as from some family members in the medical field - apologies I do not have a specific article to source.

Essentially my logic breaks down like this:

• Once a vaccine is formally approved there is a ramp up time to scale production - this is the reason that many competing drug companies are partnering on the production of covid drugs as it can save time and money to leverage someone else's existing manufacturing infrastructure. Establishing the ability to manufacture a drug at scale (100s of millions of doses vs thousands) takes time.
• Depending on the drug itself there is also the time taken to manufacture it, you also need the packaging and in some cases climate controlled storage and transportation which also takes time to put in place.
• You also have to train medical professionals how to administer the drug, have distribution and massive scale logistics in place for mass inoculation of 100's of millions of people. This all takes time to put in place before you can start administering vaccines.
• Once this is in place it will then easily take a year or two to inoculate the entire population but with anti vaxxer sentiment we have our final challenge, the field of dreams situation, if you build it will they come. Simply put it is going to take time to educate the population on this vaccine and convince them to take the vaccine.

So when taking all the above into consideration, even with an approved vaccine it will easily take a year or two to get the majority of the population vaccinated and there will be a vocal minority who absolutely refuse. I hope these assumptions and logic a proven wrong and we get the vaccine much faster.

I guess there's some chance it could take that long if things go really poorly. There's this though today from the Secretary of HHS:

"In a series of media appearances on Tuesday, Alex M. Azar II, the secretary of health and human services, mapped out a potential timeline for distributing Pfizer’s vaccine, if it receives authorization as is widely hoped. In December, the focus would be on vaccinating the most vulnerable groups. Those groups have not yet been determined, but recommendations from experts have zeroed in on health care workers, first responders and older Americans in nursing homes and assisted-living facilities.

By the end of January, Mr. Azar said he expected to have enough vaccine for all health care workers and first responders. (He also added senior citizens to that list in one appearance.) And by the end of March or early April, he expected to have enough of not just Pfizer’s vaccine, but also other vaccines in development, for all Americans, he said. Interim findings are also expected this month from another front-runner in the vaccine race, Moderna Therapeutics."

Re your point on the anti-vaxxers, I don't think it's a huge issue. Herd immunity is going to fall somewhere between 50% and 90% of the population being vaccinated. Some small percentage of crackpots who refuse to be vaccinated shouldn't really impact the timing of herd immunity being achieved.

 

[dovski]

This testing of international flights is just an experiment. The government is looking at ways to get the airline business on track. There is no guarantee that this will go beyond whatever the cut out date is. And as mentioned it's for international flights. So if anyone is considering using this method and driving....NO.

A few weeks ago I saw that 26 international flights had come into Canada and had Covid-19 cases on them. So the need to test AGAIN after a week is a must.

I would make sure that you can cancel the trip without cost or problems.

So first I am actually Canadian, second my flight is an international flight, third we have placed to stay/quarantine in Alberta if needed and access to testing there. As far as cancellation we can do so with 72 hours notice, so there is no rush as April is a long way off. Programs like this are going to be necessary and you will likely see them expanded once the get fine tuned in the pilot which is currently underway. My hope is that by April they have worked out the kinks and formally reopened the border with the proper safety protocols in place.

Also to be clear the government is not just looking at ways to get the airline business back on track, they are testing ways they can safely reopen the borders for international travel. We are not there yet by a long shot but this is a step in the right direction. Also to be clear we are putting safety first so if we are not comfortable with the protocols we are not going to travel, it is just way to early to make that call

 

[dovski]

I guess there's some chance it could take that long if things go really poorly. There's this though today from the Secretary of HHS:

"In a series of media appearances on Tuesday, Alex M. Azar II, the secretary of health and human services, mapped out a potential timeline for distributing Pfizer’s vaccine, if it receives authorization as is widely hoped. In December, the focus would be on vaccinating the most vulnerable groups. Those groups have not yet been determined, but recommendations from experts have zeroed in on health care workers, first responders and older Americans in nursing homes and assisted-living facilities.

By the end of January, Mr. Azar said he expected to have enough vaccine for all health care workers and first responders. (He also added senior citizens to that list in one appearance.) And by the end of March or early April, he expected to have enough of not just Pfizer’s vaccine, but also other vaccines in development, for all Americans, he said. Interim findings are also expected this month from another front-runner in the vaccine race, Moderna Therapeutics."

Re your point on the anti-vaxxers, I don't think it's a huge issue. Herd immunity is going to fall somewhere between 50% and 90% of the population being vaccinated. Some small percentage of crackpots who refuse to be vaccinated shouldn't really impact the timing of herd immunity being achieved.

I think everything we are hearing is incredibly promising, but until we have formal authorization and active distribution and administration of the vaccine anything is possible. Also we really do not know what number we need to reach for heard immunity, how many will refuse the vaccine, how long the vaccine will last for .... etc. Simply put lots of unknowns and variables to take into account. I hope they can accelerate the timelines, vaccinate everyone and go back to life pre-covid very quickly, just not willing to hold my breadth while waiting for that to happen.

 

[Jilly]

New COVID-19 pilot planned for international travellers - Canada.ca

A joint pilot program from the Province of Alberta and the Government of Canada – the first of its kind in the country – is being developed to safely explore an alternative approach to the current 14-day quarantine requirement for international travellers while continuing to protect Canadians...

www.canada.ca

 

[dovski]

New COVID-19 pilot planned for international travellers - Canada.ca

A joint pilot program from the Province of Alberta and the Government of Canada – the first of its kind in the country – is being developed to safely explore an alternative approach to the current 14-day quarantine requirement for international travellers while continuing to protect Canadians...

www.canada.ca

Looks like I a qualify for the pilot and my port of entry is the Calgary international airport

 

[Jilly]

It will be interesting to see if Banff and keep numbers in order. Alberta is having issues this week, along with Ontario, Quebec and Manitoba.

 

[ADKmel]

I sure hope it gets better, I can't wait to go back to banff... can I quarantine at the Fairmont? lol

 

[dovski]

I think everyone is having issues this week with numbers but here is hoping that we all turn things around quickly

 

[Mike Rogers]

Hopefully you will be able to visti. My sister (Canadian) lives in Oregon, and she is jumping through the hoops to come up for a visit with her American children.

It has been a pretty good start to the season. I've had 4 backcountry days and 4 resort days.

October was phenomenal, but we got rain to treeline in early November. The alpine is holding nice snow, but it's pretty icy down low. Still, I can't remember Louise having such a good November 11. 52 runs (including paradise) sure beats the Wiwaxy 500!

 

[dovski]

Hopefully you will be able to visti. My sister (Canadian) lives in Oregon, and she is jumping through the hoops to come up for a visit with her American children.

It has been a pretty good start to the season. I've had 4 backcountry days and 4 resort days.

October was phenomenal, but we got rain to treeline in early November. The alpine is holding nice snow, but it's pretty icy down low. Still, I can't remember Louise having such a good November 11. 52 runs (including paradise) sure beats the Wiwaxy 500!

So for those Canadian's out there the good news is that you can travel back to Canada with your American family, but unless you enter through one of the approved crossings running the pilot program you will have to quarantine. I am lucky as I am originally from Alberta and the pilot stipulates that even though you do not have to quarantine if you meet the requirements and have negative tests upon arrival, you are not allowed to leave Alberta and travel to other parts of Canada for 14 days. Also be aware that each province has slightly different requirements.

Last but not least if you do visit Canada and violate the covid protocols there steep fines, penalties and in some cases jail time.

 

[Jilly]

You have to quarantine no matter where you enter. In Alberta, if your 2 tests come back negative, then you're down to 7 days. No matter what you have to have plans to quarantine for the 14 days on arrival. If you pass after the 2 test (so it could take 5 days total to get all results) then the period is reduced. Tests are done on arrival here, not anywhere else. They will ask you at the crossing/airport what your plans are and you will have to download the app to your phone. They will be checking.

If any expats are thinking about coming into Canada I would suggest they read the rules on the Government website and/or check with CBSA. CBSA is deciding if your return is valid. They could turn you away at the airport of entry. I've added the link below. Inside of it is the info on entering Alberta.

COVID-19: Travel, testing and borders - Travel.gc.ca

COVID-19 border measures have ended as of October 1, 2022 for all travellers entering or returning to Canada by air, land or sea.

www.canada.ca

 

[Mike Rogers]

You have to quarantine no matter where you enter. In Alberta, if your 2 tests come back negative, then you're down to 7 days. No matter what you have to have plans to quarantine for the 14 days on arrival. If you pass after the 2 test (so it could take 5 days total to get all results) then the period is reduced. Tests are done on arrival here, not anywhere else. They will ask you at the crossing/airport what your plans are and you will have to download the app to your phone. They will be checking.

If any expats are thinking about coming into Canada I would suggest they read the rules on the Government website and/or check with CBSA. CBSA is deciding if your return is valid. They could turn you away at the airport of entry. I've added the link below. Inside of it is the info on entering Alberta.

COVID-19: Travel, testing and borders - Travel.gc.ca

COVID-19 border measures have ended as of October 1, 2022 for all travellers entering or returning to Canada by air, land or sea.

www.canada.ca

You only have to quarantine until you get your first test comes back negative. This typically takes 2 days.

COVID-19 info for Albertans

Alberta is learning to live with COVID-19 while protecting the health care system and increasing vaccination rates.

www.alberta.ca

 

[dovski]

You only have to quarantine until you get your first test comes back negative. This typically takes 2 days.

COVID-19 info for Albertans

Alberta is learning to live with COVID-19 while protecting the health care system and increasing vaccination rates.

www.alberta.ca

And they are testing two new tests that give results within 2 hours, so if they go with one of those you may not have to quarantine at all.

The other scenario that is being considered but not in pilot yet is having people test before they travel as well as upon arrival.

 

[Jilly]

After 14 days, you may freely leave Alberta and are no longer required to submit daily reports.

Is you trip this long?

 

[babanff]

After 14 days, you may freely leave Alberta and are no longer required to submit daily reports.

Is you trip this long?

You can leave the country before 14 days as long as you are leaving directly from Alberta (which he already said he is)... just can't travel between provinces within the 14 days. I don't know anyone who has used the pilot program yet, but I'm excited about it and hopefully it stays in place. I was thinking of using it myself to visit my family back in the States this month, but now their state has quarantine policies that prohibit me from visiting them.

 

[Rod9301]

Actually planes appear to be safer and more controlled environments than we thought, so I am willing to risk the 60 minute flight from Seattle to Calgary, it is the 2 week quarantine that is the challenge, so hoping that is no more come April.

Yeah, i saw the studies that showed airplanes were safe, but i wonder who sponsored these studies? Airlines maybe?