EV or no EV?

[James]

There were/are some community solar projects in Texas. Basically individual investors can buy into solar farms - individuals are limited to some % of their home usage (ie you cannot buy more community solar than you consume). I suspect that battery farms will be coming next. I do not think that Lithium ion should be the go to battery for these. They should use more sustainable/cheaper materials where battery size/weight is not a problem. These sorts of batteries are in development. Iron/air is one contender. There are others.

EV batteries can also supplement, but long term feels like a bad idea. Bulkier, cheaper, more environmentally friendly batteries should be used wherever portability is not a driver.

There’s an argument that lithium batteries with cobalt and nickel are actually better for the overall lifecycle because the elements have $ value for recycling. Lithium Iron Phosphate, LFP, batteries one might have to pay for them to be recycled. Don’t know where that stands.

The irony in unregulated Texas is wind, solar, batteries, are killing fossils on cost. Now Texas legislators want to spend billions to protect natural gas.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/01/cars/tesla-lfp-battery/index.html

https://environmentamerica.org/texas/articles/save-texas-renewables/

 

[Lauren]

With the progressive withdrawal of the rotational inertia of large thermal generators, batteries are doing the stabilising job as well or better than synchronous condensers, presumably with lower maintenance costs as no moving parts.

As far as I know, this is a debatable and minimally tested, at this point in time. While batteries are performing grid-support functionality, the technology is not there to support on their own when you're talking grid-scale...not saying it won't get there, but there are still major hurdles to overcome.

 

[cantunamunch]

There’s an argument that lithium batteries with cobalt and nickel are actually better for the overall lifecycle because the elements have $ value for recycling.

Eh, @Seldomski had the basics right but he forgot to mention 'more scaleable for both capacity and immediate power draw'. Larger scale means easier recycling.

Lithium Iron Phosphate, LFP, batteries one might have to pay for them to be recycled. Don’t know where that stands.

Meh. I think LiPo is a dead end - superb for current marine use, legacy tech in (probably less than) 20 years. Guess we should ask the house boaters.

 

[James]

Well ok, but you’re going to have 5-10million? LFP ev batteries in 5 years. Counting China.

 

[cantunamunch]

Well ok, but you’re going to have 5-10million? LFP ev batteries in 5 years. Counting China.

No doubt. Because $cheap.

On the upside, they should all have about double the number of cycles before needing replacement than laptop-style lithium ion, which kicks the recycling can further down the road.

 

[cantunamunch]

I'll just put this video here. Not because I agree but because all the talking points are...energetically presented ... and because silly retarded electric buses with gasoline heaters.


Now imagine a set of those puppies in LCC or BCC

 

[dovski]

From an automotive standpoint I think the traditional manufacturers have essentially fallen victim to an innovators dilemma (great book by the way if you have not read it). Forget about EVs for a second, what Tesla has done that is pretty amazing is completely disrupt the traditional automotive value chain as follows:

1. They have changes the way factories actually build cars with end to end vertical integration and technological innovations like the Giga press. They are the only automotive manufacturer today using this approach and as a result their cost of production is significantly less and their supply chain is much more efficient
2. They have revolutionized the buying process with a direct to consumer approach that eliminates the dealership and as such removes layers of margin. Their approach also streamlines the buying experience and eliminates actual negotiations, useless up-sells and hours in the dealership with finance and sales managers
3. They have created tangential revenue streams from the energy/charging market which would comparable to Ford or GM owning both gas stations and refineries

Now when you add in all their technical innovation and integration of third party innovation into their vehicles that creates a pretty large differentiation above all this. The point is simple though, traditional companies with huge investments in traditional manufacturing facilities and a reliance on a traditional dealership network to sell their cars are at a huge disadvantage. Simply put all major auto companies that want to stay relevant will have to go through a transformation in order to compete with Tesla and potentially the new Chinese entrants to the automotive world as these new players are not going to play by the legacy rules of the auto world.

 

[geepers]

As far as I know, this is a debatable and minimally tested, at this point in time. While batteries are performing grid-support functionality, the technology is not there to support on their own when you're talking grid-scale...not saying it won't get there, but there are still major hurdles to overcome.

Hmmm... maybe Australia is ahead of the ROTW on this one....

“World first:” Hornsdale battery gets approval to deliver critical inertia services to grid

Australia’s grid takes another big step towards 100pct renewables with approval for Tesla big battery to deliver inertia services for first time at this scale.

reneweconomy.com.au

The Hornsdale Power Reserve in South Australia, aka the “Tesla big battery”, has finally gained approval to become the first big battery in the world to deliver grid-scale inertia services.

The approval came from the Australian Energy Market Operator after nearly two years of trials and testing, and is considered to be another critical step towards managing a grid with 100 per cent renewables and no coal plants and gas generators in operation.

https://www.aemc.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/rule_change_submission_-_erc0263_erc0296_-_tesla_erc0263_erc0296_-_20210204.pdf

So the concept works. So much so that NSW is trailing its own. Wallgrove - operational Dec 2022.

LUMEA™

LUMEA is a leading essential infrastructure services provider.

www.lumea.com.au

No doubt electricity companies will need to trail similar systems on their grids before it becomes widely recognized. The 'random Australians' idea doesn't only apply to ski technique.

 

[Jwrags]

From an automotive standpoint I think the traditional manufacturers have essentially fallen victim to an innovators dilemma (great book by the way if you have not read it). Forget about EVs for a second, what Tesla has done that is pretty amazing is completely disrupt the traditional automotive value chain as follows:

1. They have changes the way factories actually build cars with end to end vertical integration and technological innovations like the Giga press. They are the only automotive manufacturer today using this approach and as a result their cost of production is significantly less and their supply chain is much more efficient
2. They have revolutionized the buying process with a direct to consumer approach that eliminates the dealership and as such removes layers of margin. Their approach also streamlines the buying experience and eliminates actual negotiations, useless up-sells and hours in the dealership with finance and sales managers
3. They have created tangential revenue streams from the energy/charging market which would comparable to Ford or GM owning both gas stations and refineries

Now when you add in all their technical innovation and integration of third party innovation into their vehicles that creates a pretty large differentiation above all this. The point is simple though, traditional companies with huge investments in traditional manufacturing facilities and a reliance on a traditional dealership network to sell their cars are at a huge disadvantage. Simply put all major auto companies that want to stay relevant will have to go through a transformation in order to compete with Tesla and potentially the new Chinese entrants to the automotive world as these new players are not going to play by the legacy rules of the auto world.

I think their success at this has come because they started from the ground up with a tech mindset, not an auto engineering mindset. They built a computer with electric motors and wheels. For all of my dislike for Musk and what an arrogant a$$ he is I give him all the credit for being a brilliant visionary.

 

[Lauren]

Hmmm... maybe Australia is ahead of the ROTW on this one....

“World first:” Hornsdale battery gets approval to deliver critical inertia services to grid

Australia’s grid takes another big step towards 100pct renewables with approval for Tesla big battery to deliver inertia services for first time at this scale.

reneweconomy.com.au

The Hornsdale Power Reserve in South Australia, aka the “Tesla big battery”, has finally gained approval to become the first big battery in the world to deliver grid-scale inertia services.

The approval came from the Australian Energy Market Operator after nearly two years of trials and testing, and is considered to be another critical step towards managing a grid with 100 per cent renewables and no coal plants and gas generators in operation.

https://www.aemc.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/rule_change_submission_-_erc0263_erc0296_-_tesla_erc0263_erc0296_-_20210204.pdf

View attachment 204144


So the concept works. So much so that NSW is trailing its own. Wallgrove - operational Dec 2022.

LUMEA™

LUMEA is a leading essential infrastructure services provider.

www.lumea.com.au

No doubt electricity companies will need to trail similar systems on their grids before it becomes widely recognized. The 'random Australians' idea doesn't only apply to ski technique.

Australia has been ahead on implementing new technologies in regards to the electrical grid, specifically when it comes to batteries…it’s pretty awesome. It will be interesting to see how this one plays out. This project is the one reasons I say it’s coming and getting there. Synchronous condensers are a proven technology to regulate and support the grid, inverters still have room to grow…Time will tell if Tesla has created a game changer, or not.

 

[James]

The 'random Australians' idea doesn't only apply to ski technique.

It really is amazing the transformation of Australia away from fossils. They could quickly become the world leader. Is there a political backlash like in Texas yet?

—————————-
Grid-scale batteries are catching up, however. Although currently far smaller than pumped-storage hydropower capacity today, grid-scale batteries are projected to account for the majority of storage growth worldwide. Batteries are typically employed for sub-hourly, hourly and daily balancing. Total installed grid-scale battery storage capacity stood at close to 16 GW at the end of 2021, most of which was added over the course of the previous five years. For the second year in a row, installations increased strongly in 2021, rising by 60% compared with 2020 as more than 6 GW of storage capacity was added in 2021. The United States, China and Europe led the market, each registering gigawatt-scale additions.
——————————-

Grid-Scale Storage – Analysis - IEA

Grid-Scale Storage - Analysis and key findings. A report by the International Energy Agency.

www.iea.org

It’s not just theory. Four Gigawatts installed last year is something.
——————————————
The United States is in a battery boom, adding nearly as much capacity on the power grid in 2022 as it did in all previous years combined.

The surge is reshaping America’s regional electric grids. In California, for example, analysts credit a wave of new battery installations with sparing the state from electric blackouts late last summer, when a searing heat wave sent power demand soaring.

“It means we can move the energy generated by wind and solar to when it is needed, like moving solar generated during the day to the evening when everyone comes home and turns on their air conditioning,” said Ric O’Connell, the executive director of GridLab. “It is enabling us to rely more and more on wind and solar.”

The United States installed 4 gigawatts of battery capacity in 2022, nearly matching the 4.7 GW installed in all previous years combined, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration figures. California and Texas accounted for 90 percent of U.S. battery installations, bringing online 2.4 GW and 1.3 GW, respectively, in 2022.
——————

U.S. Battery Installations Soared in 2022, Reshaping Power Grids

The U.S. installed more battery storage last year than ever before, with California and Texas leading the way

www.scientificamerican.com

 

[scott43]

Well Australia ain't got no oil industry to speak if and most of the country gets less than two inches of rain a year... Soooo...

Like calling us innovative for James Bay and Churchill falls....

 

[dovski]

I think their success at this has come because they started from the ground up with a tech mindset, not an auto engineering mindset. They built a computer with electric motors and wheels. For all of my dislike for Musk and what an arrogant a$$ he is I give him all the credit for being a brilliant visionary.

Completely agree, and that is how Tesla got there. All that aside every existing Automotive company is now faced with a classic innovators dilemma and the process, production model, sales models and value chain they have relied on for close to a century are no longer relevant or sustainable. Simply put disrupt or be disrupted. To be clear EVs may have been the genesis of this massive paradigm shift, but this is not an ICE vs EV struggle .... the reality is the fundamental automotive business model has been disrupted, so it is no surprise that so many existing car companies are struggling with this transition. Even those with a better EV product/strategy like Ford have not tackled changing the business model or reinvented their manufacturing process. As a result every traditional car company is going to struggle in this new market. So yes Tesla put wheels on a computer when they developed their product, but the real magic is the business model and process they developed around this product, that is the impressive part and that is what is really sending shock-waves through the industry.

 

[geepers]

Australia has been ahead on implementing new technologies in regards to the electrical grid, specifically when it comes to batteries…it’s pretty awesome. It will be interesting to see how this one plays out. This project is the one reasons I say it’s coming and getting there. Synchronous condensers are a proven technology to regulate and support the grid, inverters still have room to grow…Time will tell if Tesla has created a game changer, or not.

They do have some 4 years of operational data. Hornsdale battery can provide about 15% of the 'inertial reserve' that was previously provided by the large rotating machines.

Before Hornsdale was built the SA grid was relying on gas powered gen for backup. This lead to some massive, massive spikes in costs. Oh, the games gen companies can play when there's a dollar (or several million) to be made....

 

[locknload]

I'll just put this video here. Not because I agree but because all the talking points are...energetically presented ... and because silly retarded electric buses with gasoline heaters.


Now imagine a set of those puppies in LCC or BCC

Interesting video. Closes with the fact that cars are the problem regardless of how they are powered. The data doesn't show EV car fires being and more prevalent that ICE or hydbrid cars...in fact, it shows them as less likely and we need more data. Sounds like that will continue to improve over time as well.

 

[scott43]

Yeah I dunno why everyone is worried about Tesla's catching fire when every frickin Hyundai should come with ejection seats and Halon fire suppression systems!!

 

[Jwrags]

Yeah I dunno why everyone is worried about Tesla's catching fire when every frickin Hyundai should come with ejection seats and Halon fire suppression systems!!

And a guard so it doesn’t get stolen.

 

[James]

Before Hornsdale was built the SA grid was relying on gas powered gen for backup. This lead to some massive, massive spikes in costs.

That led to this exchange in 2017? What was the bet?

 

[geepers]

It really is amazing the transformation of Australia away from fossils. They could quickly become the world leader. Is there a political backlash like in Texas yet?

Not quite. The political energy transformation wars in Australia have been long, bitter and disruptive - which was exactly the intention. The only question is the number of Prime Ministers brought down - was it 3 or 4? If we'd had a bipartisan approach we'd have been 15 to 20 years ahead of where we are now.

As it stands on electricity transition one state, South Australia, is clearly leading the way. At times they are net generating over 100% of their electricity through renewables, doing so for 249 hours in December 2022. It's been as high as 85% over a whole month, and last financial year (July 2021 to June 2022) it was 68.3% over that 12 mths.

Politically it remains a difficult issue.

Well Australia ain't got no oil industry to speak if and most of the country gets less than two inches of rain a year... Soooo...

Not much oil, however substantial exports of LNG - it's generally between Australia and Qatar for world's largest - and huge reserves of coal - think Oz is in 3rd place globally for coal reserves. So lotta lobbying to dig n drill.

There are substantial reserves of shale oil - doubt they will ever be developed.

That led to this exchange in 2017? What was the bet?

Yeah, a bit more to the story than just that bet. Which is essentially if Tesla didn't finish it within 100 days it was going to be free. Mike Cannon-Brookes is one of the billionaire owners of Atlassian - it's nice to be rich enough that a $100M is of little consequence....

A bet between billionaires created the first big battery – but for SA's premier, it wasn't that simple

It's been five years since the construction of Elon Musk's giant battery in rural SA. But for then-premier Jay Weatherill, the tweets that triggered the Tesla project were a double-edged sword.

www.abc.net.au

 

[James]

If we'd had a bipartisan approach we'd have been 15 to 20 years ahead of where we are now.

We may be headed for the same as fossils go kicking and screaming. Then segments looking for cheap votes convince people their lives are over without an ice car, or they’ll be in the dark shivering

Australian minerals are deemed ok for constructing batteries for ev’s under the Inflation Reduction Act.

2011-2021-

Visualizing 10 Years of Global EV Sales by Country

Global EV sales have grown exponentially, more than doubling in 2021 to 6.8 million units. Here's a look at EV sales by country since 2011.

www.visualcapitalist.com

April in UK. Diesel sales are cratering.

Electric Car Count — New AutoMotive

Find out which car company is winning the battle for a share of the market for new EVs, which company is going big on hybrids, and who is clinging on to petrol or diesel.

newautomotive.org