Hmmm, Ford electric and Tesla as public utilities could get interesting
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EV or no EV?
- Thread starter Dakine
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I’m interested to see how this develops over time and to see how much the rank and file car buyer values “traditional” car qualities vs. charging network and software (where Tesla is very strong).
I leased a BMW IX this year. It’s a truly outstanding car in terms of ride, handling, performance, interior and overall build quality, It has an overwhelming feeling of solidity, all of the materials feel nice to touch, the interior is a modern take on a luxury car, the dealer / service experience is excellent, etc. As big family cars go, it’s fun to drive too. As you can probably tell, I really like the car.
I participate in a couple of forums specific to the IX and there’s a ton of former Tesla owners. All of them miss the supercharger network and a few areas of software that Tesla does well, but for them, those things ultimately couldn’t make up for how their Tesla performed overall as a car. In general, the reasons they moved on were things like fit and finish, rattles, ride quality, handling, durability, quality of materials, spartan interiors, ergonomics etc.
I really like cars and driving, and all of those qualities of a traditional car are important to me. 95% of my charging is at home, so I didn’t weight the charging network particularly heavily when choosing a car, and the high value I place on all of those traditional car qualities is why I was happy to suffer the occasional inconvenience of not having access to the supercharger network.
I suspect there are a lot more “car as an appliance” people than there are car people though, so i expect I’m firmly in the minority on my car buying criteria.
Volvo launched the Polestar brand so they could go direct without these issues, but they also have Volvo EVs now. Many auto manufacturers may have to take creative approaches like this and essentially launch stand alone EV brands to avoid lawsuits from dealerships and trade organizations that support the dealers. What we are really seeing here is an innovators dilemma play out in real time. With lack of inventory, market adjustments and a legacy sales model, the traditional dealership is struggling and the experience it delivers is sub-par at best. We already saw massive dealership consolidation/reduction during covid, that trend is likely to continue as is the pressure on the automotive industry to modernize the way they do business to keep up with the likes of Tesla. So while legislation and lawsuits may slow things down, they are only delaying the inevitable.
interesting article in WSJ which is on the more "right" side, but seemed to note the basics of where EVs can improve. At least the writer is a bit less critical and seems to simply point out what seems fairly obvious.
There's truth in what was noted in this thread, driving an EV shouldn't really be a one to one comparison, planning and habit would make a difference. I'm one I think that as noted prior, needs to start with a hybrid or PHEV.
maybe this link works:
www.wsj.com
There's truth in what was noted in this thread, driving an EV shouldn't really be a one to one comparison, planning and habit would make a difference. I'm one I think that as noted prior, needs to start with a hybrid or PHEV.
maybe this link works:
Why America Isn’t Ready for the EV Takeover
Software glitches, inaccurate range estimates and clunky charging options all limit adoption.
www.wsj.com
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2023 isn’t the same as 2022, and 2024 will be very different from this year.interesting article in WSJ which is on the more "right" side, but seemed to note the basics of where EVs can improve. At least the writer is a bit less critical and seems to simply point out what seems fairly obvious.
There's truth in what was noted in this thread, driving an EV shouldn't really be a one to one comparison, planning and habit would make a difference. I'm one I think that as noted prior, needs to start with a hybrid or PHEV.
maybe this link works:
Why America Isn’t Ready for the EV Takeover
Software glitches, inaccurate range estimates and clunky charging options all limit adoption.
The title, usually not the writer’s but the editor’s, implies it’s not going to happen or it’s a disaster. I don’t think that was really the writer’s intent. It’s always funny too that none of these pieces go find out what’s happening in Norway with charging. It’s the only relatively mature ev market.
Soon, if we can manage to keep this somewhat non political, the titles will be more of “this is what we need….” , rather than “this will never happen.”
$7.5 billion from the Feds for charging, that’s not chump change. There’s also still money from the Volkswagon settlement and the Fed’s for municipalities going to municipal fleets like school buses for cng, propane, or electric. Low income districts actually get priority.
I don’t think Blackberry sales peaked till a year after the iphone came out. In retrospect, that was the nail in the coffin. I still think we’re at 50% of new car sales are ev’s by the end of 2030. We’ll likely be at 10-12% by the end of 2023.
Which curve, and where are we? Things are very different than just 3 years ago.
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Here’s a look at adoption rates for the household appliances and products today that we would consider pretty essential, over a period of more than 120 years:
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The Rising Speed of Technological Adoption
See over 100 years of technological adoption on this interactive chart. It can explore everything from the washing machine to smartphones, with one click.
www.visualcapitalist.com
Are you saying that the editors' take in titling and tweaking tone of these articles is actually a decent reflection of what they believe the public wants to hear?
What the public wants to hear to justify and validate their own preconceptions, that is?
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Yep. It’s nothing’s happening here, for a lot of people, justified by the problems outlined in the article.
Never mind companies are spending many billions to make this happen. I think by mid 2024, it’ll be a different landscape and many more will see. By mid 2025 the inevitability will be apparent for the majority of cars.
Even Porsche is saying they’ll be 80% ev’s by 2030.
The author was driving a Lucid (US company) vehicle. Look for Lucid to be a PGA Tour sponsor as the Saudi govt just invested more money, $3billion, in them.
I'd agree, but I suspect the roll out will take a longer and growing as it has with the usage denser population centers on out, but 2030 in my mind a decent bet.
With energy infrastructure updates in the industry occurring, they compliment one another. Given too is that the petroleum companies are betting big on the migration too, so while many may not trust them, if they're dumping cash into electrification and renewables, one more indictor of change.
NYTimes had an article on outdoor tubs. Curves above match the adoption of indoor tubs for the avg home. Pretty typical of most new technology, cost and availability.
I am almost positive my next car will still have an internal combustion engine. Maybe a hybrid of some kind, but not a pure EV. I do too many long trips and I don't see the charging infrastructure coming close to being adequate for at least 10 years. And something needs to happen to battery technolgy to reduce the performance hit they take in cold weather.
interesting article in WSJ which is on the more "right" side, but seemed to note the basics of where EVs can improve. At least the writer is a bit less critical and seems to simply point out what seems fairly obvious.
Why America Isn’t Ready for the EV Takeover
Software glitches, inaccurate range estimates and clunky charging options all limit adoption.
The article title is a click-bait, and so are some of the points made within it:
1. EV makers need to level with drivers about the true range of vehicles
- True 'dat.
2. America’s charging infrastructure is inadequate
- Inadequate how? But what measure? At what number of public chargers would the infrastructure be deemed "adequate"?
- The quote below belies the inflammatory nature of this argument:
"While America has more fast chargers than ever, for those on road trips, or with longer commutes, the convenience of not having to stop frequently to recharge is neutralized when parking lots, hotels and restaurants don’t have charging stations. "
... and how many parking lots, hotels, and restaurants have gas pumps?
3. EVs can have the same kinds of software problems as computers and phones—because that’s what they are
- EVs are no more computers and phones than an ICE car is.
4. Topping up at an unfamiliar charging station can be tricky (an example provided was difficulty with setting up a charging account in Canada)
- Partially true. Especially internationally, other than the (now) dominant Tesla SuperCharger network.
- Between Tesla, EVGo, and ChargePoint networks, I haven't run into any unknowns when charging at unfamiliar locations over the past 9+ years of EV driving. OTOH, I haven't driven my EVs to Canada, yet.
I would not recommend a hybrid or PHEV to anyone, unless you were leasing that car, and planning to ditch it before warranty expires.
The complexity and cost of maintaining two parallel drivetrains (EV and ICE) in the same vehicle drastically increases the probability and magnitude of price repairs down the line. BTDT. Never again.
HTH,
a
That "differentiator" is a 2-edged sword.
On one hand - you expedite and simplify the buying experience. That is real, and true.
On the the other hand - you complicate and handicap the service and warranty experience. With Tesla owning the Service Centers (and no dealer in the middle to argue customer's case), Tesla can and does get away with ridiculously questionable service practices and warranty denials with no recourse outside of the court system. If you like to take your automotive OEM to court every other time you experience a warranty dispute - Tesla's business model is for you.
Otherwise, beware!
And the last comment is, unfortunately, coming from my first hand experience of dealing with Tesla, not hearsay or bias.
(Tesla fanboys love to dismiss any criticism of their favorite automaker as a biased world-wide conspiracy).
Personally, I would rather trade-off (potential) one-time buying hassle for long-term hassle-free service experience!
I'm not sure whether Tesla makes much money off EV chargers (they did raise the charging rates last summer!), or who gets to capture the potential profit from the new chargers that GM and Ford will be putting up. I assume whomever builds them, gets to run them and keep the revenue.
For what its worth, neither EVGO nor ChragePoint (CHPT) have managed to turn a profit from building out and running EV charger networks, so I doubt it will become a lucrative business any time soon.
EVgo, Inc. (EVGO) Income Statement - Yahoo Finance
Get the detailed quarterly/annual income statement for EVgo, Inc. (EVGO). Find out the revenue, expenses and profit or loss over the last fiscal year.
finance.yahoo.com
ChargePoint Holdings, Inc. (CHPT) Income Statement - Yahoo Finance
Get the detailed quarterly/annual income statement for ChargePoint Holdings, Inc. (CHPT). Find out the revenue, expenses and profit or loss over the last fiscal year.
finance.yahoo.com
That's a poor analogy, as Beta and VHS were incompatible formats.
NACS (Tesla plug) and CCS can easily be cross-adopted. Tesla used to include a CCS adopter with all of its cars. I have two, and use them all the time (at work).
Tesla is building all of its cars with CCS2 plugs for sale in EU, and GB/T connectors for sale in China. And that's not changing.
So the shape and size of the plug is irrelevant. Having one common standards is a plus for the consumers in the US, but a net wash for the automakers.
Except for Tesla.
Tesla used to derive a competitive advantage from marketing its proprietary EV charging network as "the best" in the US, and it can no longer make that claim.
The claim was mostly bogus, as Tesla had significantly fewer locations with its chargers installed, by a factor of 3. But at the 1/3 fewer EV charger sites that Tesla had build out (vs. CCS or CHadeMo), Tesla had installed more plugs per site.
That (dubious) perceived advantage is now gone. For good.
Tesla wants EVs of all brands to use its charging connector
In opening up its charging connector, renaming it NACS, and shedding the proprietary "Tesla connector" name, Tesla is also positioning for public charger investment.
a
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I was literally thinking the same thing!so you're calling one the VHS and the other may be the Beta of charging.. at least in the US?
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I'd say you're probably right on the money with your 10-year estimate, especially in the wide open spaces of the western US.
Tough to make battery density a whole lot better without some true breakthrough. My understanding is that there is a lot of research into making faster charging less damaging to batteries. That would be good.
and how many parking lots, hotels, and restaurants have gas pumps?
About zero, but then again, I can refill my ICE at a gas station in mere minutes, then sleep all night at my hotel, or have a long, leisurely dinner at a restaurant. I'm obviously missing your analogy.
Side Note: IME the face palming emoji does not help in getting a point across.
Right on the money. Our next door neighbor moved on from her Tesla for this, and only this, reason. She was so bummed, telling us how she had bragged and bragged on her Tesla to so many, for so long, then felt like she had the rug pulled out from under her.
OK, how ordinary.About zero, but then again, I can refill my ICE at a gas station in mere minutes, then sleep all night at my hotel, or have a long, leisurely dinner at a restaurant.afadeev said:and how many parking lots, hotels, and restaurants have gas pumps?
I can do the same in ~15-25 minutes at a SuperCharger, then sleep all night at my hotel, or have a long, leisurely dinner at a restaurant.
So what?
Probably because it wasn't an analogy?
It was a comment on the article pointing out to lack of EV chargers at hotels and restaurants as a reason for American's presumed unpreparedness for EV adoption, when no such accommodations are present for the legacy propulsion vehicles.
I love how you guys quote decade-long estimates to solve a loosely formulated problem with an undefined objective function.
I can drive 1,800 miles up/down I-95 in an EV with SuperChargers every 50 miles, or less. That's more than adequate, by my definition, effective now.
However, I honestly would NOT want to do that, in either my EV or my ICE vehicles, since flying would be WAY faster, cheaper, and more enjoyable.
These days, 5-7 hours is my limit for driving with the family with all the gear in the back (skis, surf boards, bikes, whatever), or 3-4 hours on my own for business.
Beyond that, I'm flying.
For business trips, EVs range and charging infrastcture are more that sufficient. Well beyond adequate.
For everyday travel, EVs are perfect (I charge mine once/week in the garage).
For family ski vacations, there is really not an appropriate EV form-factor on the market, today. Maybe CyberTruck will fix that, we'll see later this year when it becomes available for test drives.
Really?
I think it works really nicely, for emphasis.
No matter. How about a picture movie reference, then:
Interesting we have had the opposite experience with service from Tesla, and really like their mobile appointments. I will say that with my first Tesla, which was a certified pre-owned 2013 P85, there were a lot of service issues, but Tesla to their credit handle them all and always gave me a free loaner. After two years of many service visits and lots of warranty work, the car was quite reliable ... but they basically replaced everything lol. Quality on our 2020 Model X has been great and we have not had any service issues or denials of claims ... etc. The quality of service on our ICE vehicles at the dealership was far from a bed of roses. Regardless of ones experience I do stand by my early statement that the Tesla model is disrupting and reshaping the auto industry and likely for the better.That "differentiator" is a 2-edged sword.
On one hand - you expedite and simplify the buying experience. That is real, and true.
On the the other hand - you complicate and handicap the service and warranty experience. With Tesla owning the Service Centers (and no dealer in the middle to argue customer's case), Tesla can and does get away with ridiculously questionable service practices and warranty denials with no recourse outside of the court system. If you like to take your automotive OEM to court every other time you experience a warranty dispute - Tesla's business model is for you.
Otherwise, beware!
And the last comment is, unfortunately, coming from my first hand experience of dealing with Tesla, not hearsay or bias.
(Tesla fanboys love to dismiss any criticism of their favorite automaker as a biased world-wide conspiracy).
Personally, I would rather trade-off (potential) one-time buying hassle for long-term hassle-free service experience!
I'm not sure whether Tesla makes much money off EV chargers (they did raise the charging rates last summer!), or who gets to capture the potential profit from the new chargers that GM and Ford will be putting up. I assume whomever builds them, gets to run them and keep the revenue.
For what its worth, neither EVGO nor ChragePoint (CHPT) have managed to turn a profit from building out and running EV charger networks, so I doubt it will become a lucrative business any time soon.
EVgo, Inc. (EVGO) Income Statement - Yahoo Finance
Get the detailed quarterly/annual income statement for EVgo, Inc. (EVGO). Find out the revenue, expenses and profit or loss over the last fiscal year.ChargePoint Holdings, Inc. (CHPT) Income Statement - Yahoo Finance
Get the detailed quarterly/annual income statement for ChargePoint Holdings, Inc. (CHPT). Find out the revenue, expenses and profit or loss over the last fiscal year.
That's a poor analogy, as Beta and VHS were incompatible formats.
NACS (Tesla plug) and CCS can easily be cross-adopted. Tesla used to include a CCS adopter with all of its cars. I have two, and use them all the time (at work).
Tesla is building all of its cars with CCS2 plugs for sale in EU, and GB/T connectors for sale in China. And that's not changing.
So the shape and size of the plug is irrelevant. Having one common standards is a plus for the consumers in the US, but a net wash for the automakers.
Except for Tesla.
Tesla used to derive a competitive advantage from marketing its proprietary EV charging network as "the best" in the US, and it can no longer make that claim.
The claim was mostly bogus, as Tesla had significantly fewer locations with its chargers installed, by a factor of 3. But at the 1/3 fewer EV charger sites that Tesla had build out (vs. CCS or CHadeMo), Tesla had installed more plugs per site.
That (dubious) perceived advantage is now gone. For good.
View attachment 205564
Tesla wants EVs of all brands to use its charging connector
In opening up its charging connector, renaming it NACS, and shedding the proprietary "Tesla connector" name, Tesla is also positioning for public charger investment.www.greencarreports.com
a
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Yeah, I guess you missed my part about the western US, huh?!
It's ironically also the place (ok, bad word) where I went out of my way to get 10A and 15A charging adapters for a rental plug in hybrid. For use at motels, because the hybrid was too annoying otherwise
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First, I find the normal car-buying experience freaking stupid. It's one of the biggest purchases I'm going to make, ever, and you want to make me sit around for an hour to do paperwork that could've been sent ahead of time and signed online, mostly so you have the opportunity to upsell your extended warranty and push your in-house or kickback-inducing-third-party financing options?
I'd be perfectly happy if, when I next buy a car (and assuming I can buy a new one), I could configure what I wanted online and get my vehicle in a reasonable timeframe, without dicking around in a sales or financing office. Being able to test drive in person is extremely helpful, though; I don't know how to best provide that without brick and mortar dealerships (although a brick and mortar dealership without adequate inventory spread across models and options doesn't really help).
Second, I think you hit the nail on the head regarding the post-purchase experience: in a traditional model, it varies tremendously by location, and in a lot of locations, you have limited choices within a reasonable driving distance for dealer service. If those dealerships don't provide a good service experience, you're kinda stuck, particularly for any in-warranty, recall, or TSB type services. And yes, you may be able to take that into account when buying a vehicle, but if you then move, you may find yourself stuck without any realistic options, and with limited recourse back to the manufacturer (there's only so much Ford is willing and able to do about service complaints, at least IME).
With the Tesla model, you should get consistent service experiences regardless of where you are. Whether those are good or bad is, in some ways, a different question, but they should at least be consistent and backed by the company you actually bought the car from.
Interesting take on Tesla selling access to its changing infrastructure being similar to Amazon selling access to its servers (AWS):
finance.yahoo.com
Tesla set for 'AWS moment’ as rivals access its charging stations, technology: Dan Ives
Tesla has “built the castle” and is "waiting for others to call," the Wedbush analyst says.
Wow looks like Toyota is really leaning in on EVs now, but will not reap the benefits of this new effort until 2026. They are even changing their manufacturing process and copying Tesla's approach with Giga Presses ... So love Tesla, hate Tesla or simply indifferent, there is no denying that they have taken a very different approach to building, selling and servicing cars that is disrupting the auto industry in a big big way. Ultimately I think these changes are great for consumers and long over due.
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