Ibis: State of the State, or, this is getting out of hand

[cantunamunch]

Aren't most of the frames made there? Taiwan I mean?

I'd very much like to buy a frame made in Europe, but boy are Time difficult to communicate with...
I do not know why but it seems simply impossible to find a Fluidity frame or persuade them to sell you one.
Very strange company these guys.

Talk to Festka - they do some amazing mandrel-wound carbon too.

 

[Tony Storaro]

Talk to Festka - they do some amazing mandrel-wound carbon too.

Good call! Their raw carbon tubes look absolutely beautiful-just checked.

 

[Rudi Riet]

A lot of them are from Taiwan, but it has gotten more diverse than that. I'm seeing a lot of Made in Vietnam, and Cambodia among others.

And don't discount the city that produces the most bike frames - steel, aluminum, and carbon - of any in the world: Shenzhen, China. Many big and medium players use the factories there to makes frames and house brand components. The factories there are huge and the people who work there do their jobs consistently well. Labor practices can be... umm... not great, but it's the same in the newer factories in Vietnam and Cambodia.

But with Giant, they do all of their frames in Taiwan. As noted earlier, they also manufacture for other brands (in the past they were the Asian manufacturer for Specialized and other brands offshoring their lower end frames).

Trek's supply chain woes may be compounded by the fact that they have moved to a lot of factory store presence that entails getting both OEM component packages and retail packaged components for direct end user sale. Having to negotiate both channels must be a nightmare and could result in shortages if they had to pivot some of their OEM build stock to in-store service stock.

 

[Primoz]

Been doing this with road chains and a hot pot for 15 years now - and if you use ski wax instead of paraffin it doesn't flake off in the cold.

Honestly, that's not an issue for me, as I never ride bike when it would be cold enough for this to be problem For me, it needs to be warm enough, that I can ride in shorts (ok knee warmers are fine), but that means no issues at all with paraffin flaking off, even though during yesterday's ride, I ventured slightly too high, and actually needed to go for some 2-3km on trail that on parts still had 30cm snow covering it. Certainly way more fun doing that on skis that on bike
But I was actually thinking that using some HF waxes would be even better, as I'm sure fluoro would help here too. Too bad I don't feel like bothering and 0.5W that could be gained with that, doesn't mean anything to my mountain biking

Also, one other consideration for parts shortages: raw materials (especially steel, slightly less aluminum) are in short supply worldwide right now. So if a component maker can't get the raw materials to make cogs, cables, chains, screws, rivets, etc. they're somewhat... screwed.

This is what I actually mean with my first post. All of a sudden, there's huge shortage in pretty much everything. Bike parts, steel, nowadays computer chips and at least for that last one, excuse is super lame... few hour power outage. Sure it can happen, but I somehow don't see how few hour power outage in one factory can cause computer chips shortage worldwide for months. But I assume COVID is nice excuse to create "shortage" and hike up prices for everything, what before couldn't be done this easy.

 

[sparty]

This is what I actually mean with my first post. All of a sudden, there's huge shortage in pretty much everything. Bike parts, steel, nowadays computer chips and at least for that last one, excuse is super lame... few hour power outage. Sure it can happen, but I somehow don't see how few hour power outage in one factory can cause computer chips shortage worldwide for months. But I assume COVID is nice excuse to create "shortage" and hike up prices for everything, what before couldn't be done this easy.

I'm pretty convinced the current supply-chain issues are real. I've heard similar stories from various sources, both personally and in the media, and they mostly seem to jibe. So I don't think it's an "excuse" to hike up prices, but I also won't be holding my breath for prices to come down when the supply-chain issues get sorted out (which they will, eventually).

 

[scott43]

I think it's a mix..there is some fairly abrupt inflation taking place in certain things where there is no shortage..steel is a good example. Lumber.. Driven by "free" money... I think there are also some legit issues for certain things relating to supply-chain logistics. But..be careful trying to sort out which is which..I wouldn't own steel right now in your portfolio....SELL SELL!!

 

[Erik Timmerman]

So... Specialized launched a new eBike today. The Kenevo SL. I think MSRP on the top model is 14K. Lower model is 12K? There isn't a model lower than that. The reason isn't that they couldn't make it cheaper, they could. The reason is that they can only make so many of them, so why make lower margin bikes when demand is so high. That's probably where some of our inflation is coming from.

 

[Primoz]

I'm not going to say what I think of someone buying moped for 14k, while you can get proper mx bike for half the price, but regardless of what I think of someone setting price of 14k for device with few 100 parts and no advanced technology (sorry carbon is no space technology in 2021, neither are hydraulic brakes, round wheels or electromotors), I totally understand Specialized (or any other company). If you have enough clients who are happy to pay 14k for moped, then of course you set such price. I would actually set it to 20k if there would be enough people who would still buy them.

@sparty I agree that some supply chain issues are real. But today, pretty much everything have supply issues, including things that have absolutely no reason for such issues, that's why I'm somehow skeptic about all this. But for sure, some are real.

 

[cantunamunch]

I would actually set it to 20k if there would be enough people who would still buy them.

That'll be the S-works model It'll be leaked on Instagram in short order.

 

[Primoz]

S-works moped? I thought with motors we are not in "racing" configuration, but then again, it makes sense. 20k is such cool round number to fit shape of average ebike user.

 

[cantunamunch]

Nope and won't see one this year! Would love to try it but afraid I'd end up with a gravel quiver!

I assume you noticed the new Canyon.

 

[coskigirl]

NBD. Need to work on the bag placement. Also, Ginsburg lost her damn mind when she watched me ride down the block. I grabbed her leash and rode with her running for a couple blocks which she did perfectly. I think she may have done it in her previous life.

 

[Erik Timmerman]

We’ve now gotten the same letter from Yeti and the Big S. As you might expect, some companies do this better than others.

 

[Erik Timmerman]

Btw, got a size medium SB130 lunch ride here that somebody backed out on if anyone is looking. (Unless it sold yesterday when I was out)

 

[Mike Thomas]

We’ve now gotten the same letter from Yeti and the Big S. As you might expect, some companies do this better than others.

What letter?

 

[Erik Timmerman]

Price increases, pushed back deliveries, etc.

 

[Rudi Riet]

Price increases, pushed back deliveries, etc.

Yup, and it's being seen in both the wholesale and retail channels.

Case in point: KMC's X11 chain (i.e. one of the most popular "universal" 11-speed chains) has jumped in price in retail outlets. Back in January one X11 chain would run about $20-22 USD. Currently I'm seeing the same chain retailing for $35-50 USD online (brick-and-mortar places vary depending on when they were originally ordered from distributors).

This will be the case as long as there's a continued short supply of components and raw materials and continued demand for the parts.

Pro tip: replace your chain early and often, before it becomes too worn to preserve the more expensive (and harder to find in certain gear combinations) cassettes and chainrings. This is why my advice is to get cheaper chains (e.g. 105 level versus Dura-Ace) unless you're a super weight weenie or really hyper focused on increasing wattage by extremely marginal gains. I've managed to get over 40,000 miles on Camapgnolo Chorus cassettes and chainrings this way, and I'm doing the same with my Ultegra R8000 components on my Moots. So far, so good.

 

[Decreed_It]

Yup, and it's being seen in both the wholesale and retail channels.

Case in point: KMC's X11 chain (i.e. one of the most popular "universal" 11-speed chains) has jumped in price in retail outlets. Back in January one X11 chain would run about $20-22 USD. Currently I'm seeing the same chain retailing for $35-50 USD online (brick-and-mortar places vary depending on when they were originally ordered from distributors).

This will be the case as long as there's a continued short supply of components and raw materials and continued demand for the parts.

Pro tip: replace your chain early and often, before it becomes too worn to preserve the more expensive (and harder to find in certain gear combinations) cassettes and chainrings. This is why my advice is to get cheaper chains (e.g. 105 level versus Dura-Ace) unless you're a super weight weenie or really hyper focused on increasing wattage by extremely marginal gains. I've managed to get over 40,000 miles on Camapgnolo Chorus cassettes and chainrings this way, and I'm doing the same with my Ultegra R8000 components on my Moots. So far, so good.

I'm starting to (way too late apparently) put together a proactive spares list and the Shimano XT Chain is hard to get, of course. I talked to my LBS and threw in the towel on shorter XT M8100 cranks, I'll just hit the d@Mned rocks on the 175s.

OG Post title was "this is getting out of hand" - well, it's fully out of hand now! Nuts!

 

[Philpug]

If anyone sees a Small E-MTB FS out there in the wild, please PM myself or @Tricia

 

[cantunamunch]

Second time I've heard this theory from somebody involved in the bike biz. I hope it's wrong, but after the past year, the big brands are REALLY flush with cash, and could easily implement this strategy.

But damn, let it be wrong.......

Not wrong. And it hasn't got anything to do with crushing the small guys, rather with re-implementing the just-in-time model to fight future disruption.

The whole video is worth the time, but the stockpiling explanation starts at about minute 16: