Ibis: State of the State, or, this is getting out of hand

[Erik Timmerman]

Anyone still hunting for bikes? The other shoe seems to have dropped now as Ibis is offering 25% off on the Ripmo AF and Ripley AF and has plenty of bikes to ship now. Yep, this summer is not like last summer. Still major supply issues, but it's starting to look like everyone that wanted a bike has either got one or has moved on to something else.

 

[scott43]

I was looking and while what I'm looking for is rather specialized, I still can't get it. Having said that I also can't sell my existing bikes. I put my XC MTB up and didn't get one response ..

 

[Erik Timmerman]

Yeah, you can't get a gavel bike right now. But those containers are starting to show up.

 

[Tom K.]

Anyone still hunting for bikes? The other shoe seems to have dropped now as Ibis is offering 25% off on the Ripmo AF and Ripley AF and has plenty of bikes to ship now. Yep, this summer is not like last summer. Still major supply issues, but it's starting to look like everyone that wanted a bike has either got one or has moved on to something else.

I have two friends pretty deep in the bike industry. One in a boutique company and the other in a "giant" -- no, not Giant.

The both say the pendulum is going to swing viciously in the other direction, starting now.

 

[Philpug]

The both say the pendulum is going to swing viciously in the other direction, starting now.

I also talked to some on the accessory side. A shop received all of their back orders from a rack company at once, 4 dozen cargo boxes. Where do you store almost 50 cargo boxes ... when you didn't expect them arriving?

 

[Wilhelmson]

I still don’t see many barely used bikes for sale yet though so people are either using them or the bikes haven’t collected enough dust.

 

[fatbob]

I have two friends pretty deep in the bike industry. One in a boutique company and the other in a "giant" -- no, not Giant.

The both say the pendulum is going to swing viciously in the other direction, starting now.

Almost inevitable - any sensible business planning was destroyed by pandemic and post pandemic supply chain failures. Consumers didn't just wait it out - they moved to what they could get. Now as businesses are forced to put prices up, general cost of living inflation plus who knows, maybe even a bit of personal fiscal prudence in the light of a looming or technical recession, means a lot fewer "money no object" buyers. So the discounting cycle starts again to keep cash flowing.

I imagine skiing hardgoods will have the same sort of rebound (maybe 23/24 if not 22/23) after the years of dire "buy early or do without" warnings.

 

[scott43]

Well I'm waiting.....

 

[cantunamunch]

Well I'm waiting.....

Stop waiting go ride

 

[scott43]

Stop waiting go ride

Oh I'm riding! When I can!! I'm just too particular and crotchety...

 

[cantunamunch]

Oh I'm riding! When I can!! I'm just too particular and crotchety...

Yo! Chamois thread!

 

[Philpug]

I imagine skiing hardgoods will have the same sort of rebound (maybe 23/24 if not 22/23) after the years of dire "buy early or do without" warnings.

The ski industry has a long history of having a short memory.

 

[AmyPJ]

Anyone still hunting for bikes? The other shoe seems to have dropped now as Ibis is offering 25% off on the Ripmo AF and Ripley AF and has plenty of bikes to ship now. Yep, this summer is not like last summer. Still major supply issues, but it's starting to look like everyone that wanted a bike has either got one or has moved on to something else.

Still waiting on my Top Fuel 9.8...Husband has had a Domane on order for months now. Yet the newest Fuel EX e's are shipping to shops. What gives?

 

[Philpug]

Still waiting on my Top Fuel 9.8...Husband has had a Domane on order for months now. Yet the newest Fuel EX e's are shipping to shops. What gives?

I think we are going to see that employee are back burnered for a while until the retailers can fill the shelves for the customers. I would not be suprised if pro deals on the ski side are also going to be scarce and hard to come by.

 

[AmyPJ]

I think we are going to see that employee are back burnered for a while until the retailers can fill the shelves for the customers. I would not be suprised if pro deals on the ski side are also going to be scarce and hard to come by.

I'm ordering as an average customer, but @utskier isn't. His bike is slated to arrive sooner than mine.

 

[Tom K.]

Still waiting on my Top Fuel 9.8...Husband has had a Domane on order for months now. Yet the newest Fuel EX e's are shipping to shops. What gives?

My Top Fuel frameset has an ETA of April 22, which Trek assures me that they just don't really know when it will show up.

None of the Top Fuels are specced anywhere near what I've got in mind, so I'd rather start from scratch this time around, although I know that Trek does not prioritize frameset sales AT ALL. Too lazy to sell take off stuff on the interweb.

Note to your hubbie: There is a new Domane coming down the pike pretty soon. Seen on the cobble stage of the Tour a week or so ago. Isospeed is gone, but compliance is said to be better (of course...).

 

[Erik Timmerman]

https://www.bicycleretailer.com/opinion-analysis/2022/07/20/jay-townley-“-future-ain’t-what-it-used-be”#.YuEnly-cbOQ

 

[AmyPJ]

https://www.bicycleretailer.com/opinion-analysis/2022/07/20/jay-townley-“-future-ain’t-what-it-used-be”#.YuEnly-cbOQ

"What some of you don’t know is this started in 2019 because of the imposition of Section 301 punitive tariffs on Chinese imports and got far worse when Covid-19 hit during the first quarter of 2020,"

This has been so overlooked by so many. SO overlooked. Never mind how it's affected inflation because the tariffs drove up prices as they are a tax that gets passed onto consumers.

Then there's this:
"So, now the bike shop channel of trade, and probably the other channels of trade as well, have more inventory than they have ever had. They have paid more for the inventory than they ever have, but the demand they were told would come, that they were expecting to make up for the increased cost of the inventory, suddenly evaporated."

We are in such unprecedented times with the pandemic being the primary driver of the chaos. It seems that things are going to settle down, but it's going to be painful for awhile longer.

Super interesting read. Thanks for sharing.

Now, where's my Top Fuel?!

 

[Erik Timmerman]

I wouldn’t be surprised if your Top Fuel suddenly appears when someone else cancels their order.

 

[AmyPJ]

I wouldn’t be surprised if your Top Fuel suddenly appears when someone else cancels their order.

I have my doubts as I've seen what's on order ahead of mine and there are no 9.8s; that being said, hopefully the backlog will break loose and it will arrive sooner vs. later. In time for ski season, no doubt.