"Bikes are cancelled til '24," according to my local bike shop. I visited today to get my daughter's ride-around-town bike tuned up, but also to look at mtb's for my son. Hoping to get him a dual suspension 29er trail bike, e.g. Stumpjumper. Forget it til 2024, he said. Then he listed the same factors mentioned here. And said no category would have a longer waiting list than the one we sought, of course. So depressing.
Yet I suspect that somehow supply will eventually catch up with demand. Production will ramp up and maybe half the "covid mountain bikers" will lose interest and sell their 2 year old bikes. Then there will be a glut and prices will fall, at least for used bikes. When this will happen is the 4000 dollar question. Hopefully well before 2024.