Trip planned for the family this week to SWFL beach trip outside Fort Myers.
Invest 98L (#98L Twitter search by latest) is still early, but most models suggest curving toward SWFL by mid next week, but no ability to have a confident forecast until next week. Most models, though, currently have it Eastern Gulf of Mexico or outright SW FLA hit. OF course could be wrong. Some (lower probability) models have it going Texas or west, but majority central gulf or East to FLA direct. Almost all, though, agree it will be a Tropical STorm if not up to Cat 3.
I'm suffering from biases/ some emotions / family upset reasons and sunk cost issues (non refundable VRBO), so likely not thinking objectively/clearly about this.
Not asking for predictions of the storm, can't know right now, but given situation, would you just call it off at this point knowing you have to decide by Friday, or take a chance? (I plan to wait until last minute though = Friday AM - to decide)
If call off, could recover most expenses except lodging (airfare credits I'd use later). Bought trip insurance on this one a while ago, so could possibly recover lodging too if Hurricane Evac, but not counting on it for this discussion given ambiguity of forecast.
If take a chance and nothing, awesome, but high probability likely still rain half the time. If take a chance and storm, models suggest turning back around and heading home mid week with possible worst case Evac. . . . Could be total $#!t$how. Likely running rental car to Orlando or something. Flights out will be hard to find.
If I cancel now, I would still try to do a local road trip or something last minute so that family and I have plan B. . . not as awesome, but I have time off so want to use it. If I don't cancel, probability of plan B with evac means no Plan B.
No confident forecast until Monday per meteorologist...but have to decide by Friday...Not sure what to do?
Appreciate any thoughts for or against.
Cheers.
Invest 98L (#98L Twitter search by latest) is still early, but most models suggest curving toward SWFL by mid next week, but no ability to have a confident forecast until next week. Most models, though, currently have it Eastern Gulf of Mexico or outright SW FLA hit. OF course could be wrong. Some (lower probability) models have it going Texas or west, but majority central gulf or East to FLA direct. Almost all, though, agree it will be a Tropical STorm if not up to Cat 3.
I'm suffering from biases/ some emotions / family upset reasons and sunk cost issues (non refundable VRBO), so likely not thinking objectively/clearly about this.
Not asking for predictions of the storm, can't know right now, but given situation, would you just call it off at this point knowing you have to decide by Friday, or take a chance? (I plan to wait until last minute though = Friday AM - to decide)
If call off, could recover most expenses except lodging (airfare credits I'd use later). Bought trip insurance on this one a while ago, so could possibly recover lodging too if Hurricane Evac, but not counting on it for this discussion given ambiguity of forecast.
If take a chance and nothing, awesome, but high probability likely still rain half the time. If take a chance and storm, models suggest turning back around and heading home mid week with possible worst case Evac. . . . Could be total $#!t$how. Likely running rental car to Orlando or something. Flights out will be hard to find.
If I cancel now, I would still try to do a local road trip or something last minute so that family and I have plan B. . . not as awesome, but I have time off so want to use it. If I don't cancel, probability of plan B with evac means no Plan B.
No confident forecast until Monday per meteorologist...but have to decide by Friday...Not sure what to do?
Appreciate any thoughts for or against.
Cheers.