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should I cancel florida trip this week?

jmeb

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Um. A lot of the issues raised about insurance, rebuilding in danger zones and failure to evacuate quickly can be applied to fire zones too. And yet, we seemed determined to live in drought prone forested mountains too...

To be fair, this thread started about Florida and Ian is one of the worst natural diasters in memory.

There's some great skiing in Climate Resilient states. Vermont, New Hampshire, Colorado, and Wyoming are all frequently in the top 10 based on whose climate resiliency rankings you trust.
 

Jerez

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,Totally agree. It is absolutely necessary to look at why we (in the US) regularly rebuild in places we should perhaps think more than twice about. We want to make people 'whole.' So, we pour money into rebuilding wherever it may be.

It is easy for someone like me to think about that when I see homes and towns flooded near massive rivers like the Mississippi regularly being rebuilt over and over, and after hurricanes in low lying areas. And it's only going to get worse. But I have to remind myself that I live in the WUI (Wildland-Urban Interface) and am in no position to judge. I suspect that's true of more than a few of us who recreate in the western and southwestern mountains now facing climate fueled drought and more super-fires, just as Floridians face climate fueled stronger storms.

Perhaps there should be some positive incentive by insurance companies and state/federal aid for people who choose to relocate to safer ground? (Rather than the punitive disincentives which don't seem to work)
 

Lorenzzo

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Before Katrina, I remember reading that someday in our lifetimes a Hurricane would come in and destroy the place because on average it’s 6 feet below sea level. It happened. And they rebuilt it. And it will likely happen again.

Government insurance and intervention seems as though it cuts against sound economic principles and incentives in that the mechanism of internalizing cost associated with use is disrupted. But then if we rely on private insurance we might be left with only places insurance companies will cherrypick. So forget FL, CA. Forget places at fire risk. Etc., etc. But if the government intervenes, all of us will pay for rebuilding places that will get destroyed again. No easy answers here.
 

James

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To be fair, this thread started about Florida and Ian is one of the worst natural diasters in memory.

There's some great skiing in Climate Resilient states. Vermont, New Hampshire, Colorado, and Wyoming are all frequently in the top 10 based on whose climate resiliency rankings you trust.
The worst destruction ever in VT was from hurricane Irene in 2011. Nyc was bypassed. It then went up and dumped 8 inches of rain in one day on most of the state on already soggy ground.
But nothing like what Ian has done to Florida.
 

Sibhusky

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Um. A lot of the issues raised about insurance, rebuilding in danger zones and failure to evacuate quickly can be applied to fire zones too. And yet, we seemed determined to live in drought prone forested mountains too...
Yes, I've been thinking that much of this could apply to me. We worry about fire a lot. Although we're not as drought prone as elsewhere. I still have green grass without watering it.
 

Wendy

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I think the perspective on time is a really hard one when we're changing the world rapidly -- its hard to fathom how climatological things may change in the next 50-100 years when they historically have not. That is, the time-horizons of our institutions from financing to life planning aren't built to think about climate shift.

Ian is a really hard one to process. This area hasn't been hit like this for as long as anyone living there has memory of. I went the middle and high school in Ft Myers. My home was 20mi inland up river right off McGregor towards the river. It was under 5-6ft of water. Homes that have stood for 80+ years around there that have never seen something like this.

That's a lifetime. Telling folks not to rebuild because once-in-a-lifetime events may now happen several-times-a-lifetime is just a hard psychological thing to break through when people are forced into crisis-mode decision making. Its why we need broader, structural federally led programs to reliable push people away from areas that are going to be continually decimated by climate. Not individual, life-time and life-course based decision making.

Can't say how glad I am my father moved to Asheville a few years back. And how sorry/hurt/grieving I am for my friends that grew up there and haven't had the life opportunities to live elsewhere whose lives were just permanently altered.
Yeah. I was just reading an article on so many people who are now homeless and don’t have the income to find another dwelling. Unfortunately, a lot of affordable places to live are in areas vulnerable too hurricanes. This is what needs to change.
 

dan ross

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The worst destruction ever in VT was from hurricane Irene in 2011. Nyc was bypassed. It then went up and dumped 8 inches of rain in one day on most of the state on already soggy ground.
But nothing like what Ian has done to Florida.
If you are ever in Brattleboro, look at the markers on the building s near the bridge in the center of town. Truly hard to believe but the effect of that storm was essentially an extended flash flood. Last year there was one in Acadia N.P. Trails were damaged by flash flooding that cut 3’ deep trenches in some places. The storm lasted 30-40 minutes?
This kind of flash flooding seems to be on the rise.
 

dan ross

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Nature constructed its own "seawalls." They are called barrier islands. ogwink

(But, I was educated as a geologist. That changes one's perspective of time and of place).

I was struck by the availability of hurricane shelters for Ian (at least from what the local FL station was broadcasting). They were numerous, all accepted pets, offered meals, and were readily available, and most weren't filled. I'm curious, because most people in now unlivable homes also have flooded cars, so they previously had a vehicle to drive to a shelter. Were the local roads to shelters so backed up that reaching a shelter in time was not possible?

I think that asking the question "why?" is valuable in helping to understand human behavior and how to prevent such tragedy from happening again. It's not disrespectful or insulting or passing judgment. It's trying to wrap one's mind around the situation to determine how better outcomes can be achieved next time.
@Wendy , isn’t a lot of the eastern coast of Florida on a porous Limestone base and alluvial soil? If foundation is everything , that’s a tough place to start with rising sea levels. Thoughts?
 

Wendy

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@Wendy , isn’t a lot of the eastern coast of Florida on a porous Limestone base and alluvial soil? If foundation is everything , that’s a tough place to start with rising sea levels. Thoughts?
I *think* most of FL is limestone (karst) with alluvial soils. That's why sinkholes are pretty much a problem most places there. If someone knows differently, speak up.

Yeah, as sea levels rise, salt water intrudes into aquifers. So not only do fresh drinking water supplies get compromised, but that water dissolves limestone easily. I have no idea how structural engineers in FL deal with foundations. But I believe houses are on slabs without basements. When I see the newer structures that withstood the wind and high storm surge of Ian, I marvel a bit, because while it's easier to build thick sturdy walls, one still needs strong foundation that resists being undercut or swept away by flooding. All newer structures in FL have to be built with these stronger codes. But engineering to keep water out?

I believe there will be a point in time where more areas of FL will just be too expensive/risky to build. Sadly, it's where a lot of lower income people in trailers end up. But that's certainly not the only state like that. I see that here in PA, too.

I can't imagine living in a little slice of paradise like that and have it swept all away. My heart aches for these people and I hope that moving forward, any rebuilding ensures people aren't so vulnerable anymore.

Again, no judgment here. I've enjoyed summers on gorgeous barrier islands and understand their appeal. Or the need to be near one's job, or family.
 

scott43

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You can't dig three feet in most places without getting water. Large buildings are founded on piles so the surface level geotech is less of an issue. Most houses would be slab on grade with very little footing and would be more susceptible to surface level geotech issues
 

dan ross

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You can't dig three feet in most places without getting water. Large buildings are founded on piles so the surface level geotech is less of an issue. Most houses would be slab on grade with very little footing and would be more susceptible to surface level geotech issues
I’m assuming by 3’ we are talking about Florida. In my site design and engineering course in architecture school, I was told that where water once was it will return. Try as you might , once the soil becomes an established conduit for water transmission, it is extremely difficult and expensive to mitigate its presence. Tall , multi-story buildings can ( and should) be built on caissons but they also face the challenge of vertical hydrostatic surcharge. In the soil/geotechnical conditions present in much of Florida, at a certain point it’s like building on.quicksand and the expense /lifecycle delta becomes prohibitive, especially with the increasing severity of storms.
 

coskigirl

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Today’s update is all but 1 employee are accounted for. The one missing is a 90 year old hostess. We’re hoping friends are taking care of her. Only 3 employees lost everything. I can’t believe we’re saying “only” like that’s a good thing. They have 6 buildings in the area, it appears 2 are standing.

Just a quick update as I don't have the energy or desire to wade into the debate about whether coastal areas should be rebuilt. All of my family's over 150 employees are accounted for. Many are in shelters or with friends/family as they can't get to their homes or the homes are severely damaged or destroyed. My aunt and uncle are doing a FB fundraiser to support their employees. If anyone is interested in donating please PM me and I'll share the fundraiser link. Unfortunately, we're seeing related scams so I don't want to post publicly here (and I can't remember if fundraiser posts are allowed.)
 

scott43

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I’m assuming by 3’ we are talking about Florida. In my site design and engineering course in architecture school, I was told that where water once was it will return. Try as you might , once the soil becomes an established conduit for water transmission, it is extremely difficult and expensive to mitigate its presence. Tall , multi-story buildings can ( and should) be built on caissons but they also face the challenge of vertical hydrostatic surcharge. In the soil/geotechnical conditions present in much of Florida, at a certain point it’s like building on.quicksand and the expense /lifecycle delta becomes prohibitive, especially with the increasing severity of storms.
Yeah Florida. Like a giant limestone sponge.
 

scott43

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Many developers and institutional or sophisticated investors have passed on FL because of the “soils”.
I play hockey with some folks here who build down there. Compared to here it's more profitable for a variety of reasons. But they're not in it for the long haul. Mostly single family detached subdivisions.
 

Wendy

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I play hockey with some folks here who build down there. Compared to here it's more profitable for a variety of reasons. But they're not in it for the long haul. Mostly single family detached subdivisions.

Based on the geology, the same could be said for many coastal plain areas (in terms of not building for the long haul).
Just to be clear that we are not pissing on Florida. ogsmile
 

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