should I cancel florida trip this week?

Tom K.

HRPufnStf
Skier
Joined
Dec 20, 2015
Posts
5,704
Go to Florida, based on today’s information. The NHC has that staying south of Cuba and heading more towards the Yucatán on its 5 day projection.

Sounds like great news for @noobski and FL vacation time!
 
Thread Starter
TS
noobski

noobski

Getting off the lift
Skier
Joined
Dec 29, 2020
Posts
409
Location
Midwest
Are you staying in an Air BnB type house place or at a major hotel building? The latter is very likely to be reasonably safe (above the 2nd floor) through all but a Cat 5. Anything beyond a tropical depression will come with power outages though.. Bring flashlights, candles, board games, extra backup batteries for phones.. I'd roll the dice if I booked a solid building to stay in. If it's a beach house I'd be rescheduling.

It's a condo on a barrier island...so basically it will get its face ripped off if something directly happens. It will also take hours to evac because there's only one road on and off.
 
Thread Starter
TS
noobski

noobski

Getting off the lift
Skier
Joined
Dec 29, 2020
Posts
409
Location
Midwest
Go to Florida, based on today’s information. The NHC has that staying south of Cuba and heading more towards the Yucatán on its 5 day projection. 5 days from today is Tuesday. If it eventually turns towards Florida it will be midweek or later. Reassess the projection tomorrow morning.

This is one of the most recent...so not sure what information you're seeing (post if you can), but the models are consistently turning it toward FLA. Below are four alone that take direct hits and then another four that are Eastern Gulf. Only 1-3 go center or west gulf. i.e. on this run, 67% are impacts.

1663874736288.png
 
Thread Starter
TS
noobski

noobski

Getting off the lift
Skier
Joined
Dec 29, 2020
Posts
409
Location
Midwest
Wednesday Euro as well. GFS has it center Gulf though. The problem remains...models won't help much until Monday due to formation location south of Jamaica.
1663874923352.png
 

Seldomski

Paralysis by analysis
Skier
Joined
Sep 25, 2017
Posts
2,585
Location
'mericuh
Sign me up!!
Careful what you wish for. I know a few people who wanted to experience these storms up close, though they were prepared, and regretted it later. There's also the general chaos that follows afterward that can be worse than the storm itself. No power/water for week(s), no emergency services, impassable roads due to downed powerlines, etc.
 

crgildart

Gravity Slave
Skier
Joined
Nov 12, 2015
Posts
13,487
Location
The Bull City
It's a condo on a barrier island...so basically it will get its face ripped off if something directly happens. It will also take hours to evac because there's only one road on and off.
They'll make you leave (strongly advise evacuation with absolute clarity) if it's headed that way. The road heading there will likely be closed BEFORE the storm is within 6 hours of there with both sides all lanes going one way out to the mainland. If it passes within a couple hundred miles you'll still get major storm surge... You'll get flooded and find yourself under 6 feet + of water during high tide if you're right on the beach/water. Those piers, that's how high the storm surge sometimes gets when a cat 3+ passes near by.

Maybe try to find some historical high tides during storms at that location.
 

slow-line-fast

Out on the slopes
Skier
Joined
Feb 3, 2021
Posts
515
Location
snow
It's a condo on a barrier island...so basically it will get its face ripped off if something directly happens. It will also take hours to evac because there's only one road on and off.
Sounds like you have made your decision. Are you asking us to help justify it? If so,

It can help to reframe in a way that makes sunk costs invisible. Suppose someone spontaneously offered you a free week at a house there. Would you pay for flights, rental car, etc, to go stay in that house, given the situation you describe?

Or would you do something else for that vacation week?
 

scott43

So much better than a pro
Skier
Joined
Nov 12, 2015
Posts
10,119
Location
Great White North
Careful what you wish for. I know a few people who wanted to experience these storms up close, though they were prepared, and regretted it later. There's also the general chaos that follows afterward that can be worse than the storm itself. No power/water for week(s), no emergency services, impassable roads due to downed powerlines, etc.
Yeah I'm mostly joking. A buddy was in Miami for a regatta back in 1992 months after Andrew. Said even months later the place was a wreck. His event was ok but was shocked at what a shit kicking Miami took. I saw pics of the strip in Cayman after that last one they had. Couldn't recognize the place. Still.. It'd be kinda cool..
 

crosscountry

Getting off the lift
Skier
Joined
Jun 6, 2021
Posts
543
Location
all over the place
Sounds like you have made your decision. Are you asking us to help justify it? If so,

It can help to reframe in a way that makes sunk costs invisible. Suppose someone spontaneously offered you a free week at a house there. Would you pay for flights, rental car, etc, to go stay in that house, given the situation you describe?
That's not quite so black and white. If it isn't a direct hit, all those dire consequences won't happen. Just a wet second half of the week, after a decent first half. Nothing out of the ordinary for a Florida vacation.

It's just the consequence CAN BE quite severe if there's a close hit. Still, it's not like he will be caught with the pants down. He can get out of dodge soon enough based on the forecast track. The only casualty will be on the wallet.

One thing I wouldn't suggest is sitting out the storm if it's anything resembling a direct hit. That's when the worst COULD happen.
 
Last edited:

crgildart

Gravity Slave
Skier
Joined
Nov 12, 2015
Posts
13,487
Location
The Bull City
It's really only a financial risk unless OP opts to be really obtuse in the face of certain danger. IF the storm is still headed that way 6-12 hours before it arrives the local authorities will likely shut down the roads coming in to make them one way traffic going out and will be all but demanding everyone leave. You won't be able to get in if you're not already there and you'll be STRONGLY encouraged to GTF out of there by the authorities. All you lose is the time and cost of the lodging if they are jerks who won't refund or offer a credit for a different future stay.
 

Tom K.

HRPufnStf
Skier
Joined
Dec 20, 2015
Posts
5,704
It's a condo on a barrier island...so basically it will get its face ripped off if something directly happens. It will also take hours to evac because there's only one road on and off.

Geez, I'm the furthest thing from a hurricane expert, but this tidbit would go into the "let's not go" column on my mental spreadsheet.

Still weather could certainly change before tomorrow morning.........
 

Jerez

Making fresh tracks
Skier
Joined
Nov 25, 2015
Posts
2,344
Location
New Mexico
Survived a decade in SE FL, including through Andrew. (Had a work colleague who barely survived with her mother and two dogs in a bathtub. Had another friend who woke up to find a Boston whaler in her pool and she didn't live on the water.) And several less consequential hurricanes. I am cautious by nature and a direct hit by a big storm is not fun.

However, here's my free advice worth what you paid for it...go.

You have someone you can stay with outside the likely path if necessary. You have a car. You sound like the rain isn't an issue.

Once there, keep an eye on the forecast and if it looks bad, go visit your friends and hang out in the rain with them.

You will likely have a minimum of 24 to 36 hours before the storm hits to decide to leave.
 
Thread Starter
TS
noobski

noobski

Getting off the lift
Skier
Joined
Dec 29, 2020
Posts
409
Location
Midwest
Sounds like you have made your decision. Are you asking us to help justify it? If so,

It can help to reframe in a way that makes sunk costs invisible. Suppose someone spontaneously offered you a free week at a house there. Would you pay for flights, rental car, etc, to go stay in that house, given the situation you describe?

Or would you do something else for that vacation week?
Like Emoji. a fellow behavioral thinker.

Sunk cost fallacy is my biggest problem here. Correct. no way I would go even with free house. I would go elsewhere.

This doesn't settle things yet because there's also decision regret I'm trying to work out right now. again behavioral. But correct, sunk cost is done. Assume spent. And isolating that, then we don't go based on my answer.

Next thing I have to work through is decision regret. I'm still struggling with that one. (i.e. storm doesn't hit and we didn't go v. storm hits, we knew better in advance and we still went).

As an aside, thank you everyone for indulging this. Hopefully it forces us to all think about these tradeoffs and our biases and psychological influences beyond this case study of our family's 1st world problem.
 

cantunamunch

Meh
Skier
Joined
Nov 17, 2015
Posts
15,336
Location
Peanut Butter and Banana Belt
As an aside, thank you everyone for indulging this. Hopefully it forces us to all think about these tradeoffs and our biases and psychological influences beyond this case study of our family's 1st world problem.

No worries.

This thread also made everyone dust off their model-observation habits for the Atlantic. Should come in useful when we start obsessing about the NAO and likely storm tracks through the NorthEast.



Next thing I have to work through is decision regret. I'm still struggling with that one. (i.e. storm doesn't hit and we didn't go v. storm hits, we knew better in advance and we still went).

How good a storyteller are you? 'Coz knowing better in advance and still going makes for great stories and permanent memories, not a good time.
 
Top