Non Region Specific Ski Town Real Estate

[newfydog]

That mtn town dichotomy is a weird tipping point. We want authenticity. However sometimes that authenticity is a bit too real. And as more people more to a mtn town seeking that authenticity, they help destroy the very thing that they are seeking in the first place.

There is a great book about Aspen, "Whiteout" by Ted Conover. A bit dated, John Denver era, but relevant in that it was transforming from a real town to whatever it is today. He has a five year rule: Everyone thinks Aspen was great when they first arrived. They identify the time the place went to hell as five years later.

I have a friend who has been in Bend for years, came as a young athlete, built a small business empire, sold it and now has a mansion in town and a place on the coast. (Muleski: believe it or not he came from the little hick college near Colby that produced great skiers but had some of the dumbest students. So much for the fancy schools). Anyway, he has rolled with the growth. When we moved away and returned he said, "yeah, it has changed, some better, some worse, mostly just different". We no longer park for free on the dirt at the airport, but we fly jets direct to places other than Portland. The abandoned smokestacks of the sawmills are now an REI flagship store, but we can sit out there on the river and slurp fresh shucked oysters. My friend puts on a great charity concert each year. We have top notch medical people.

I think the trend is not a fad. Things will shake out and be different.

 

[newfydog]

Actually, I think once all these people are vaccinated, we'll have a few frigid winters with a ton of snow and they'll decide they like somewhere else better. It's dark here most of the winter.

I have a story from a few winters ago when we got a big dump in town. (Bend gets very little snow compared to just up the road). A guy at the post office was sending a pile of registered mail to Arizona. He said it was a place where he could transfer his law license without taking the state bar exam. He was moving anywhere that didn't get snow like that. I held the door for him on the way out. Hoping for another dump.

 

[Sibhusky]

We are WAY WAY behind this year.

 

[AmyPJ]

Not all realtors love this market, Amy. Many do not, we also like our area as it was before the onslaught. A few extra bucks income doesn't make up for change in culture/lift lines/traffic.

I am still a happy realtor, but I enjoyed my work and my area more before the craziness of this year. I can't really complain, so I"m still quite happy, I'm just a slightly less spoiled to ski so often with so many people moving up here and having the flexible schedule.
And, yes, I also work with lots of buyers, and it's been tough. Someone mentioned a multi million dollar property going 250K over, I sold properties this year under 1mil that went that much over.

Where to go from here... ohio, newfy?
maybe austria? A buddy of mine asked if I'd be in for a partnership in a chalet in the alps, less than 150euro! I may be in for a vacation chalet in the old world .

Sorry you got shut out, Amy, sucks.

Cheers!
W

I got my real estate license just as things were really exploding. I gave it up. I'd rather work in a buyer's market or a normal one, honestly, than a market with a TON of inexperienced agents and shenanigans going on. I also was on a team that treated me as "sink or swim" and I don't swim well without a ton of teaching. I also don't like blowing smoke up people's asses, which I felt I had to do daily because I really didn't know what I was doing.

One of the largest brokerages in the area sends out a slick magazine quarterly. One of the listings was for lots right next to the lifts at Powder Mountain (it's so sad to the locals what has been done to that mountain.) It was marketed as "affordable lots at just $500,00." Affordable lots for $500,000??!! Affordable for who?!

It is all in the "ski town" you choose. Chewelah, WA 10 miles from 6 chair ski area that gets 300"/year and 1900' vert. Prices are up but comparatively not that bad. A name hill and you will pay. https://www.realtor.com/realestatea...-Lincoln-Ave-B_Chewelah_WA_99109_M12356-56954

My mom in Spokane would love that. Chewelah, though. I'll save my comments, let's just say I'd have a hard time blending in there.

Everybody looking for the old Bend, I think I found it.
Got fortunate 2 years ago and spent the best part of a year in Twin Falls, ID. The skiing is there, but a bit farther Sun Valley, Pomerelle (a very cool little place with good snow), Soldier Mountain (a sleeper of a little area) are within 90 minutes. Fishing, golf, biking, climbing, all there.
Medical, good shopping, decent food, jobs, schools all pretty good and all in high desert. About 40,000 people and the prices have not gone nuts yet. It is a place I could live easily.
If you are traveling through to SLC or JH get off the highway and take a look. A pretty cool town.

I have a friend who is an instructor at Pomerelle. I've never been. The falls in Twin Falls are very cool.

 

[Quandary]

When we bought our place in Breck (11/99) the DJIA was about 11,000. I told my spouse, this will be a great investment! She said BS you just want a place to go ski.... Well 20 years later had the money been put in the market it would have gone up 272%. Investment in Breck house has gone up 389%. Mmmmm I guess it was a good investment!

 

[Jersey Skier]

When we bought our place in Breck (11/99) the DJIA was about 11,000. I told my spouse, this will be a great investment! She said BS you just want a place to go ski.... Well 20 years later had the money been put in the market it would have gone up 272%. Invested in Breck house its gone up 389%. Mmmmm I guess it was a good investment!

Well, you could have bought AAPL or AMZN back then and well....

 

[chris_the_wrench]

Cut the highspeed internet, that’ll help thin out the ‘residents’. I love my netflix, but sometimes wonder.....

-Chris

 

[Pat AKA mustski]

Big Bear has been hit hard also. Properties are gone before they even hit the MLS and realtors are contacting each other with does anybody have a _______ coming up? We got lucky and bought our new home right before it took iff. We rented our cabin to our mailman for a reasonable price because we’d rather have 1 good tenant than deal with the hordes in STR right now. Everyone has discovered us and are buying properties to turn them into STR. There will be a huge correction when everyone returns to employment and can’t come up weekdays anymore. Suddenly all this short term rentals will sit empty 5 days a week.

 

[newfydog]

When we bought our place in Breck (11/99) the DJIA was about 11,000. I told my spouse, this will be a great investment! She said BS you just want a place to go ski.... Well 20 years later had the money been put in the market it would have gone up 272%. Invested in Breck house its gone up 389%. Mmmmm I guess it was a good investment!

Interesting.... In Bend the only the low end houses have outpaced the stock market since 2008, but the high end has lagged. The high end took off so suddenly late last summer that no one really knows what something is worth. It is clear that the soaring wealth disparity is now manifesting in the real estate market of places which used to have rather normal price distributions.

 

[WadeHoliday]

Everybody looking for the old Bend, I think I found it.
Got fortunate 2 years ago and spent the best part of a year in Twin Falls, ID. The skiing is there, but a bit farther Sun Valley, Pomerelle (a very cool little place with good snow), Soldier Mountain (a sleeper of a little area) are within 90 minutes. Fishing, golf, biking, climbing, all there.
Medical, good shopping, decent food, jobs, schools all pretty good and all in high desert. About 40,000 people and the prices have not gone nuts yet. It is a place I could live easily.
If you are traveling through to SLC or JH get off the highway and take a look. A pretty cool town.

OK, I said I couldn't complain, but after this morning, it's hard.... at my parking spot right on the ski run before 8 am, skied down to lift, but they said everyone had to line up in the same line for the lift and gondola, followed the line (limping as i have a bad toe), all the way through the village, past the drop off, down the stairs past the bus drop off.. never seen it like this, busy holiday, perfect snow, never, and this was fri non holiday!
I told my wife we should blow it off and go to breakfast, maybe come back and ski 2-4 if we feel like it. I'm not waiting an hour in line to just get on the mtn, no matter how good the snow may be. I"d much rather ski icy bumps (which I like), with no people around than pow w/ tons of peeps. Am I spoiled, yes. But for the first time, after this pandemic, I am thinking it may almost be time to move from lake tahoe. 30 yrs may be enough...

So, tell me about pomerelle? skiing in idaho can be good, but I know Californias that have moved there have struggled with the politics and culture. That's a much bigger worry than the skiing for me. With 2 jobs in the family that pay so well, may just have to suck it up till retirement in 8-10.
So, twin falls, hey, may have to look at that. Or austria .

cheers!
W

 

[JohnL]

In the long run, as Keynes said, we are all dead. But here are some of my thoughts of where things will eventually get to. How long it will take, dunno. But this will change the current situation a bit, at least for non-Aspens and Vails. In other words, to stabilize or lower home prices.

• Interest rates will rise from historic lows.
• Preferred tax treatment for real estate will lessen. The mortgage interest deduction could go to a fixed rate tax credit, less than the current marginal tax rate deduction for highest earners. The cap on state and local tax deductions may further depress prices, if the Dems don’t eliminate it. It is still a bit new to have much of an affect. There are others tax preferences that could get lowered, such as second home deductions, one time capital gains deductions, etc. The real estate industry and homeowners have successfully fought tooth and nail against all of this. But,
• Home ownership can’t both be affordable and a long-term investment (at least at recent returns). With an ever increasing percentage of the population priced out of the market, I think the politics are shifting a bit.
• This is a biggie. The high-paying jobs that go fully remote will have a reduced pay scale, more national than local. There is no reason for companies to pay San Francisco salaries if their employees aren’t located in San Francisco. Facebook and others are already discussing this in public. Current remote workers may not see an immediate pay cut, but raises won’t be happening and benefits may be cut. New hires will be under a new pay scale.
• Companies will be bringing a lot of people back to the office. Likely not 5 days a week, but often enough each week that living in Idaho and working in San Francisco will be tough. Ex-hurbs will do well under this, but flying in could be tough.
• Many recent city ex-pats will tire of lots if snow shoveling, cold weather, lack of amenities/choices, and some of their kids could get bored.

 

[Quandary]

So, tell me about pomerelle? skiing in idaho can be good, but I know Californias that have moved there have struggled with the politics and culture.

That's an interesting perspective. As I would would say that all the California's moving to Colorado are ruining the state!

 

[AmyPJ]

In the long run, as Keynes said, we are all dead. But here are some of my thoughts of where things will eventually get to. How long it will take, dunno. But this will change the current situation a bit, at least for non-Aspens and Vails. In other words, to stabilize or lower home prices.

• Interest rates will rise from historic lows.
• Preferred tax treatment for real estate will lessen. The mortgage interest deduction could go to a fixed rate tax credit, less than the current marginal tax rate deduction for highest earners. The cap on state and local tax deductions may further depress prices, if the Dems don’t eliminate it. It is still a bit new to have much of an affect. There are others tax preferences that could get lowered, such as second home deductions, one time capital gains deductions, etc. The real estate industry and homeowners have successfully fought tooth and nail against all of this. But,
• Home ownership can’t both be affordable and a long-term investment (at least at recent returns). With an ever increasing percentage of the population priced out of the market, I think the politics are shifting a bit.
• This is a biggie. The high-paying jobs that go fully remote will have a reduced pay scale, more national than local. There is no reason for companies to pay San Francisco salaries if their employees aren’t located in San Francisco. Facebook and others are already discussing this in public. Current remote workers may not see an immediate pay cut, but raises won’t be happening and benefits may be cut. New hires will be under a new pay scale.
• Companies will be bringing a lot of people back to the office. Likely not 5 days a week, but often enough each week that living in Idaho and working in San Francisco will be tough. Ex-hurbs will do well under this, but flying in could be tough.
• Many recent city ex-pats will tire of lots if snow shoveling, cold weather, lack of amenities/choices, and some of their kids could get bored.

I hope you're right. It's definitely very, very discouraging when many of those snatching up homes are investors who will then flip them or rent them out and charge outlandish amounts for rent and be horrible landlords. We lucked into a rental that is affordable, and the owner lived in it before getting transferred so he's not an investor. He's been fantastic as a landlord and we treat his house like we would treat it if we owned it. But there's always that nagging "what if he decides to return? What if he decides he wants to sell it?" that goes on in my mind. We'd end up in some POS in downtown Ogden because that's all we could afford right now.

Wade, the struggle to fit in is real, even in a more populous place like the SLC area. People HATE California here, yet most of them have never lived there. I lived there for a lot of years, and that state has a lot of great things going on that other states should take note of. Utah seems more interested in selling off all their land and water resources, never mind what it does to the land and the air quality.

 

[SShore]

Newfy, I should have bought that house next door to you a few years ago when I had the chance.

 

[DanoT]

Interest rates will rise from historic lows.

Governments around the world are in debt big time and thus cannot afford paying for a significant rise in interest rates, never mind paying down the actual loan amount. So they will print money big time and we will see low interest rates and inflation at the same time.

I'm thinking taxes go up for everyone, house prices do not drop, things get more expensive, the value of a dollar drops.

 

[SShore]

Actually, I think once all these people are vaccinated, we'll have a few frigid winters with a ton of snow and they'll decide they like somewhere else better. It's dark here most of the winter.

I sure hope so. The californians are ruining SW Montana

 

[Pat AKA mustski]

In the long run, as Keynes said, we are all dead. But here are some of my thoughts of where things will eventually get to. How long it will take, dunno. But this will change the current situation a bit, at least for non-Aspens and Vails. In other words, to stabilize or lower home prices.

• Interest rates will rise from historic lows.
• Preferred tax treatment for real estate will lessen. The mortgage interest deduction could go to a fixed rate tax credit, less than the current marginal tax rate deduction for highest earners. The cap on state and local tax deductions may further depress prices, if the Dems don’t eliminate it. It is still a bit new to have much of an affect. There are others tax preferences that could get lowered, such as second home deductions, one time capital gains deductions, etc. The real estate industry and homeowners have successfully fought tooth and nail against all of this. But,
• Home ownership can’t both be affordable and a long-term investment (at least at recent returns). With an ever increasing percentage of the population priced out of the market, I think the politics are shifting a bit.

I think that the STR market changes these equations quite a bit. We no longer have one, but we did put our Oceanside home on the STR market for 2 years while we waited for the real estate market to rise. The advantage of a STR is that you can still use it yourself and you can write off mortgage interest, upkeep expense, and property tax as part of the business expense. In CA our property tax tends to the high side and the previous administration put a cap on the amount of property tax that can be written off. That doesn't apply to a STR or rental property. I think as long as businesses can write off all their expenses, STR properties will look good in ski/beach resort areas ... as long as there is a clientele looking to travel. The plus side to high prices in resort areas is that real estate in the areas being vacated will go down so others will have a chance to buy in and that will cause the pendulum to swing again. We tried to get into Big Bear many years ago, but couldn't afford it. In 2007, the market had gone down enough, we could afford it.

My dad always said ... don't buy where everyone is leaving; buy where everyone wants to go. He was in construction for his entire life so maybe he knew what he was talking about. That's how we ended up leaving Montreal in 1978 and moving to San Diego. The problem is spotting the trend before it becomes unaffordable.

 

[Wilhelmson]

Reminds me of tale of two cities

We have had ours for about 1.5 years. Nothing fancy but its clean and comfortable. More part lifestyle choice than wise use of capital.

Cash is king. For a reasonable priced property its easier to get the cash beforehand and then roll it into a mortgage if needed. Not an option for most for a dream home.

Seems like the market is a little hot to buy into big time now but people just have gobs of money. Depending on where you buy the payments can be less than rent, but other assets are appreciating too.

 

[newfydog]

Newfy, I should have bought that house next door to you a few years ago when I had the chance.

The little mill house next door sold for 750 and was torn down. They wrecked a month of our lives jackhammering out a basement and built a three level 2 million dollar monstrosity. Nicer neighbors though.

 

[JohnL]

I think that the STR market changes these equations quite a bit. We no longer have one, but we did put our Oceanside home on the STR market for 2 years while we waited for the real estate market to rise. The advantage of a STR is that you can still use it yourself and you can write off mortgage interest, upkeep expense, and property tax as part of the business expense. In CA our property tax tends to the high side and the previous administration put a cap on the amount of property tax that can be written off. That doesn't apply to a STR or rental property. I think as long as businesses can write off all their expenses, STR properties will look good in ski/beach resort areas ... as long as there is a clientele looking to travel. The plus side to high prices in resort areas is that real estate in the areas being vacated will go down so others will have a chance to buy in and that will cause the pendulum to swing again. We tried to get into Big Bear many years ago, but couldn't afford it. In 2007, the market had gone down enough, we could afford it.

My dad always said ... don't buy where everyone is leaving; buy where everyone wants to go. He was in construction for his entire life so maybe he knew what he was talking about. That's how we ended up leaving Montreal in 1978 and moving to San Diego. The problem is spotting the trend before it becomes unaffordable.

Those are some good points on STR - which are obviously more prominent in resort areas.

In the DC area, there is a lot of push back against short term rentals, for a variety of reasons. But in a resort area, they make a lot of economic sense, since there will be new visitors coming in continually supporting restaurants, bars, retail, etc. But the resort areas become a lot more crowded.

My remote work and remote pay scale points still are important.

For STR, I think the increasing expenses will limit the price appreciation of properties, at least the ones that are not ski in/ski out/prime. There will always be enough people paying top dollar to visit those places. I expect higher fees on rentals, similar to hotel, airport, taxi fees. Always easier to tax the out of owners. I think there is a market limit for STR in most areas. Which means, hopefully, you can buy in a short drive away in some of the smaller places. Unlike the current situation.

Maybe this is all wishful thinking on my part. Dunno.