Steelers!

[Erik Timmerman]

OK, what about the Titans? How real are they? How real are the Steelers?

 

[scott43]

Heard a thing on the radio last night about the Steelers. "Big Ben isn't throwing the ball..." Because, so the radio person said, they have so many weapons he doesn't have to. One of the team guys said it was like Bill Cowher football and they won the Superbowl by just handing off to the Bus (Jerome Bettis) every play. So they were quite confident the Steelers were legit and a real threat to go all the way.

 

[Laurel Hill Crazie]

OK, what about the Titans? How real are they? How real are the Steelers?

I thought the Texans might be a test. I thought the Browns might be a test. The Titan should be their biggest test to date. I hope they test out like the Browns and Texans.

Heard a thing on the radio last night about the Steelers. "Big Ben isn't throwing the ball..." Because, so the radio person said, they have so many weapons he doesn't have to. One of the team guys said it was like Bill Cowher football and they won the Superbowl by just handing off to the Bus (Jerome Bettis) every play. So they were quite confident the Steelers were legit and a real threat to go all the way.

Ben is off to the best start of his career. Passer rating is the best and that includes TD to interception ratio. He has distributed the ball to maybe 9 different receivers. He is not putting up 300+ yards per game but in the past, he usually lost those games. His timing has been off on the deep ball but ask Claypoole about that. Ben isn't prolonging plays with a scramble but gets the ball out quick like a traditional pocket passer. The run game has run out the clock in the second half to protect a lead but the Steelers are not the best rushing team in the NFL. That would be the Browns, Patriots, Ravens, Cardinals, and Titans in that order but Ben did say that aspect of their game reminds him of the Cowher years.

But yeah, Ben isn't throwing the ball well so all their opponent should game film the Cowher years and forget about how they've done it this year.

The biggest concern is will the loss of Devin Bush (who the Stillers move up to the tenth spot in the first round to grab him) hurt their Defense. Is Robert Spillane up to the challenge and how will the Stillers compensate for the loss of speed in the middle?

Should be a fun game to watch but I hope it's a boring blow out with the Stillers holding Henry to minus yards and Tannehill sacked and intercepted multiple times.

 

[dbostedo]

Ben is off to the best start of his career. Passer rating is the best and that includes TD to interception ratio. He has distributed the ball to maybe 9 different receivers. He is not putting up 300+ yards per game but in the past, he usually lost those games.

I don't put a whole lot of stock in passer rating... I do put more into QBR and DVOA, where Ben is 22nd and 12th respectively. (Like passer rating, they're both a rate/efficiency metric, so not puffed up by throwing the ball a ton, or dragged down by not throwing as much.)

I don't think Ben's been playing badly, but I think he's been a bit inconsistent overall. I'm really curious about the Steeler's record in gams where Ben throws for 300 yards. I'd think it's very good, and thinking that "we lose when Ben throws for 300" is old-school thinking just like "you have to have a strong running game to set up the pass". Off to see if I can figure out the Steeler's record when Ben throws for 300....

 

[scott43]

They had a similar discussion about Patrick Mahomes..they actually run the ball really well and that sets up the big pass plays when they need it. I mean, I don't follow football that much anymore, but I always believed that the run game was necessary to allow freedom for passing plays. If all you do is pass that's an easier game to plan for defensively, whether you have the players to counter that is a different story. Different philosophies I guess..short dump passes all the time vs grinding run game and big pass plays?

 

[dbostedo]

So Ben has 62 300+ yard games in his career. The Steelers record in those is 34-28. The Steelers overall record in that time is 149-72.

So my gut was wrong... they have a significantly better winning percentage overall, than when Ben throws for more than 300. I believe there's a big difference in the NFL over that time as well... in that passing has continually gotten easier and more common through his career... but that's interesting at least.

As far as run/pass mix, sure you need both - they set each other up to some extent IMO. The thinking I'm getting at is when people think that:

-- You have to run first or early in the game to be able to pass
-- You have to feed a particular running back a lot to be successful

That second point often gets trotted out as "Team A wins 80% of the time when Running Back X get 25 carries". That's true, but sometimes they've got the cause and effect backward. The running back probably got 25 carries because they were leading already and grinding clock. You can't just give the running back 25 carries regardless of game situation, and get that same win percentage. That sentiment does seem to be getting a lot less common, as most teams don't have that one workhorse RB, and just don't run as much in general. But I used to hear it a lot on broadcasts and in articles.

 

[SugarCube]

We saw Spillane have some solid tackles last week after Bush got hurt. Our secondary looked better against the Browns, but then that's not saying much. Tannehill will test our secondary and that could be a test we don't pass (no pun intended) with flying colors. Expecting a good game and a Pittsburgh W.

 

[dbostedo]

We saw Spillane have some solid tackles last week after Bush got hurt. Our secondary looked better against the Browns, but then that's not saying much. Tannehill will test our secondary and that could be a test we don't pass (no pun intended) with flying colors. Expecting a good game and a Pittsburgh W.

I don't think the secondary is bad, but I do think they are susceptible to a team that can manage the "get pressure or get burned" defensive style the Steelers are employing. They're getting pressure on over 61% of plays right now.... the highest season long rate in the last few years by any team was 52.5%, so they're not likely to be able to keep it up indefinitely. No idea if this is the week it fails though - I hope not! (Stats from this article: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/walkthrough/2020/walkthrough-desperate-measures)

 

[Erik Timmerman]

YES McCloud!

 

[Erik Timmerman]

Wow, so apparently you can go like 5 minutes without breathing.

 

[dbostedo]

Wow, so apparently you can go like 5 minutes without breathing.

Felt a bit like the Indianapolis playoff game where Bettis fumbled, Ben made the tackle, and Vanderjagt missed the FG for Indy.

That interception was killer... but the miss saved us. And Ben's reaction they showed was great.

 

[Laurel Hill Crazie]

6 and OMG!!!!

 

[Erik Timmerman]

Anybody want to tell me how many undefeated teams the NFL has now?

 

[Coach13]

Anybody want to tell me how many undefeated teams the NFL has now?

....and then there was 1...

 

[Erik Timmerman]

Who is excited for tomorrow?

 

[Coach13]

It should be a great game between 2 very statistically similar teams. Both defensives are similar and will play great imo. The wildcard will be which offense can stay on the field and score. I coud be wrong for sure but I’ll be surprised if this is a high scoring game.

 

[Erik Timmerman]

I was feeling like the wild card is how many players are still active on Monday!

 

[dbostedo]

I as feeling like the wild card is how many players are still active on Monday!

Monday? The game is tomorrow!

 

[Erik Timmerman]

Monday? The game is tomorrow!

I know! Who will survive the game?

 

[Coach13]

I as feeling like the wild card is how many players are still active on Monday!

For sure. If Ingram doesn’t play, I’m interested to see how Baltimore adjusts.