Triple-Dip La Nina??

[scott43]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/western-canad-la-nina-triple-dip-winter-weather-1.6487400

 

[cantunamunch]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/western-canad-la-nina-triple-dip-winter-weather-1.6487400

Yes to all that - but remember that in June we're still talking basically a ~5% difference in likelihood between the La Nina and neutral scenarios.

IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society | February 2024 Quick Look

iri.columbia.edu

The consensus forecast we absolutely want (or dread ftm) is the September 15th one. Until then, there's at least *some* hope for change.

 

[Henry]

Dear La Niña brought devastating floods to B.C. in November and to Montana in June. Neutral would be good. California and across the U.S. Southwest desperately needs an El Niño. I skied Vail and Steamboat last winter, and the snowpack at both was shockingly thin, thus little water for the Colorado River drainage.

 

[RUBBERDUCK]

How about the U.P. ?
I drove up to Mount Bohemia for the first time last February. Drove there from Indiana in my F150 Lariat. Stayed in a trailside cabin, had the cheap season pass. Went on the Voodoo snowcat trip with my brand new Shaggys. AND......... it was way better than some of my expensive trips out West. Bohemia ended up going over 300 inches for the season, which was more than most of Colorado? I can't wait to go back, even if I already have trips planned to Aspen/Snowmass and AltaBird every year.
And since Steamboat Powdercats decided to raise the crap out of their prices every year (850$ a seat now), I decided to go back to CMH helicopter skiing at the Bugaboos. Anybody else in?

 

[neonorchid]

Yes to all that - but remember that in June we're still talking basically a ~5% difference in likelihood between the La Nina and neutral scenarios.

IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society | February 2024 Quick Look

iri.columbia.edu

The consensus forecast we absolutely want (or dread ftm) is the September 15th one. Until then, there's at least *some* hope for change.

Sept 12th update:

The 'triple-dip La Niña' explained – and how it affects the weather in your area

It's the first time this century that La Niña has returned for three consecutive years, according to the UN's weather agency. The pattern influences weather events worldwide.

www.npr.org

"It is exceptional to have three consecutive years with a la Niña event," WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said in a statement.

"The southwestern U.S., with rain clouds pushed out to sea, becomes drier than usual. Northwestern U.S. states and Canada see cooler-than-average temperatures, rain and flooding."

 

[Tony S]

I hereby assert my right to ignore this topic completely.

 

[cantunamunch]

*with some chance of almost - neutral by February.

Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

 

[slowrider]

A Polar Vortex is emerging in the Stratosphere over the North Pole and will impact the weather as we head closer to Winter 2022/2023

A Polar Vortex returns to the Stratosphere over the North Pole to influence the Winter 2022/2023 over the United States, Canada, and Europe

www.severe-weather.eu

 

[scott43]

Someone is going to leave the freezer door open again apparently....

 

[cantunamunch]

Someone is going to leave the freezer door open again apparently....

On the upside, all that rain over the summer did wonders for the prairie grain harvest. Here's hoping it can all get to market with no rain/mudslide/trainblockage/horrorshowala2021

 

[spudbumkin]

A Polar Vortex is emerging in the Stratosphere over the North Pole and will impact the weather as we head closer to Winter 2022/2023

A Polar Vortex returns to the Stratosphere over the North Pole to influence the Winter 2022/2023 over the United States, Canada, and Europe

www.severe-weather.eu

That was quite the read. It appears good for us in the west, but who really knows. I just want another winter just like 96-97!

 

[RJS]

 

[neonorchid]

 

[Roundturns]

I wonder if I’ll be golfing or skiing here in SW Pa. This Christmas (lol)