Midwest Upper Midwest 2020-2021

[Marker]

I have not heard of it. A quick search shows it up by Rice Lake.

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My mistake, my wife confirms this one was Rice Lake. I guess all her friends had cabins up north. This one only had an outhouse! The lodge at Hardscrabble was a poleshed with a hole in the roof and a fire pit for warmth.

 

[Beach Bum]

Not to sound like debbie downer, but I feel bad for lift operators in Midwest and out East. This pre-winter weather forecast is frustrating. No really cold air as far as eye can see. Models going out to end of November show minimal precipitation and mild temps, where is the lake effect?!?

Even up in the UP and say the Keewenaw where you can track and compare snowfall - http://keweenawcountyonline.org/snowfall2.php - they could finish November way down compared to most years. Only half way but hopefully season gets going soon.

With Midwest resorts ramping up to hopefully have one of their busiest seasons in recent memory, I'm sure they would love to be up and running in early December. We'll see when winter weather finally starts arriving.

 

[pete]

My mistake, my wife confirms this one was Rice Lake. I guess all her friends had cabins up north. This one only had an outhouse! The lodge at Hardscrabble was a poleshed with a hole in the roof and a fire pit for warmth.

@Marker , is your wife a pretty tough cookie for weather and outdoor activities? That pretty roughing it for winter and can't imagine it didn't toughen her up.

 

[Marker]

@Marker , is your wife a pretty tough cookie for weather and outdoor activities? That pretty roughing it for winter and can't imagine it didn't toughen her up.

Not really, like I said earlier a lot of underage drinking was tolerated in Wisconsin back in the 70's lol! But compared to most she will ski some pretty sketchy east coast conditions.

 

[Dwight]

Wow, BJ is looking pretty good right now.

 

[Dwight]

About 5" of new snow fell yesterday.

 

[afski722]

Not to sound like debbie downer, but I feel bad for lift operators in Midwest and out East. This pre-winter weather forecast is frustrating. No really cold air as far as eye can see. Models going out to end of November show minimal precipitation and mild temps, where is the lake effect?!?

Even up in the UP and say the Keewenaw where you can track and compare snowfall - http://keweenawcountyonline.org/snowfall2.php - they could finish November way down compared to most years. Only half way but hopefully season gets going soon.

With Midwest resorts ramping up to hopefully have one of their busiest seasons in recent memory, I'm sure they would love to be up and running in early December. We'll see when winter weather finally starts arriving.

I actually think in some ways with everything else currently going on, the spiking cases and government restrictions that a warmer November is probably a blessing for this season.
Resort operators aren't yet having to make difficult decisions about if/when they should start-up snowmaking operations. The weather hasn't let them start yet.
I say that because in all honestly, its a toss-up for how the season is going to shape-up economically. The resorts/areas that do strong season pass sales, and have already booked the majority of their season pass revenue, have that bit of certainty. The areas that heavily rely upon day tickets, travel, and/or school groups are going to be a big unknown this season.

Snowmaking is expensive. I can see resorts being a bit more judicious about when they make snow, not starting and "chasing" marginal conditions this year, and there not being a race to open first.
Being open in November or even early-December doesn't matter this season. This year I think most are looking more at Mid-December as the early-season is usually not a big revenue generator.

This is a season of threading water and survival for many of the smaller midwestern ski areas. Budgets will be tight, ancillary revenue streams from F&B will be down a lot with lodge capacity restrictions or closures.

Better seasons will be ahead.

 

[pete]

Not to sound like debbie downer, but I feel bad for lift operators in Midwest and out East. This pre-winter weather forecast is frustrating. No really cold air as far as eye can see. Models going out to end of November show minimal precipitation an.... We'll see when winter weather finally starts arriving.

feel your angst but then ... wait a week. Predictions of late IMHO suck.

I'm guessing (going by memory is scary for me) that my 2 day predictions have been on par with the weather services ... and that's using the old adage of sticking my head out the back door and proclaiming the same weather in 2 days.

I will say I'm glad I'm not a weatherperson ... they just can't win.

 

[Dwight]

https://johndee.com/ has started his daily forecasts again.

 

[focker]

We still haven't bought our Indy Pass this year. Having a hard time getting excited about this season.

Anyone know how late in the year they sell the Indy pass?

 

[wallyk]

I talked to a rep from Welch on Friday, had to sign our waiver for the season, and was told that the snowmaking will commence in December.

Given that ski areas, at least in MN, will have to accommodate for reduced revenue due to social restrictions, is the thought that given the expense of running snowmaking that the local hills will be more methodical and deliberate this year and perhaps blow less? I have a hard time seeing some of these areas rushing to compete for clients this year while operating under a what can be a severe compression in revenue (Welch offering limited concessions which is a nice money maker). Have thought that if another round of PPE comes from the federal government this could act a a further disincentive for some of the local hills to not make snow and rely on mother nature.

Thoughts.......

 

[wallyk]

We still haven't bought our Indy Pass this year. Having a hard time getting excited about this season.

Anyone know how late in the year they sell the Indy pass?

Don't know about the Indy Pass.......but also having a hard time getting excited to ski Minnesota this year.

A gathering of Minneapolis, SkiTalk (careful not to write PugSki members) at Welch could help with some of those blues.......

 

[Dwight]

I talked to a rep from Welch on Friday, had to sign our waiver for the season, and was told that the snowmaking will commence in December.

Given that ski areas, at least in MN, will have to accommodate for reduced revenue due to social restrictions, is the thought that given the expense of running snowmaking that the local hills will be more methodical and deliberate this year and perhaps blow less? I have a hard time seeing some of these areas rushing to compete for clients this year while operating under a what can be a severe compression in revenue (Welch offering limited concessions which is a nice money maker). Have thought that if another round of PPE comes from the federal government this could act a a further disincentive for some of the local hills to not make snow and rely on mother nature.

Thoughts.......

Places like Ski Brule have opted not to make snow this year because of the unknown. Sinking costs into snow and possibility of being shut down later, seems not to make financial sense for them. Will be a tough season for them. They don't get much lake effect.

 

[Dwight]

We still haven't bought our Indy Pass this year. Having a hard time getting excited about this season.

Anyone know how late in the year they sell the Indy pass?

Will the price for the Indy Pass increase later?
Yes. The price of all Indy Pass products including the Indy+ and Kids Passes will increase by 10% on December 1 and January 1.

So at least in Jan.

 

[Beach Bum]

I actually think in some ways with everything else currently going on, the spiking cases and government restrictions that a warmer November is probably a blessing for this season.
Resort operators aren't yet having to make difficult decisions about if/when they should start-up snowmaking operations. The weather hasn't let them start yet.
I say that because in all honestly, its a toss-up for how the season is going to shape-up economically. The resorts/areas that do strong season pass sales, and have already booked the majority of their season pass revenue, have that bit of certainty. The areas that heavily rely upon day tickets, travel, and/or school groups are going to be a big unknown this season.

Snowmaking is expensive. I can see resorts being a bit more judicious about when they make snow, not starting and "chasing" marginal conditions this year, and there not being a race to open first.
Being open in November or even early-December doesn't matter this season. This year I think most are looking more at Mid-December as the early-season is usually not a big revenue generator.

This is a season of threading water and survival for many of the smaller midwestern ski areas. Budgets will be tight, ancillary revenue streams from F&B will be down a lot with lodge capacity restrictions or closures.

Better seasons will be ahead.

Agree with a lot of this. But as far as better seasons ahead and all, at least the UP resorts have been in a multi-decade recession. Literally, ski figures have been on the decline since the 90's. What a perfect time for numbers to back up with great skiing to be had, no need to fly and be in big crowds. There is a reason so many of these resorts are hyped and doing what they can to comply with COVID rules and have safe yet great skiing.

Just need mother nature to comply. Like Pete said forecast models are crazy of late. Total flip flops. I just want a cold December!

 

[wallyk]

Places like Ski Brule have opted not to make snow this year because of the unknown. Sinking costs into snow and possibility of being shut down later, seems not to make financial sense for them. Will be a tough season for them. They don't get much lake effect.

That's tough to read. Am wondering if this is the season that sees another wave of closures across the US. Margins at ski areas are tight to begin and the temps/conditions during key holiday days over the last 2 years here in MN (Christmas MLK, President's Day weather has been horrible for driving guests). I'm assuming this has kept visitors away and revenue down. I'm not sure how much more some fiscal pain of these local areas can assume. Liability premiums have not declined and while interest rates are low, how willing are these areas willing to borrow to finance payrolls and debt payments?

 

[pete]

Don't know about the Indy Pass.......but also having a hard time getting excited to ski Minnesota this year.

A gathering of Minneapolis, SkiTalk (careful not to write PugSki members) at Welch could help with some of those blues.......

dang, I'm in Iowa so unloved ... but reality I'd rather do a more central Wi meet up or even a Chestnut meet up as they're better routed and some family options exist.

That's tough to read. Am wondering if this is the season that sees another wave of closures across the US. Margins at ski areas are tight to begin and the temps/conditions during key holiday days over the last 2 years here in MN (Christmas MLK, President's Day weather has been horrible for driving guests). I'm assuming this has kept visitors away and revenue down. I'm not sure how much more some fiscal pain of these local areas can assume. Liability premiums have not declined and while interest rates are low, how willing are these areas willing to borrow to finance payrolls and debt payments?

Seems like the restaurant business, Ski resorts may need some form of bail out or low cost interest. Today too it seems regardless of the resort, only those that expand and offer more round year activities might survive. Of course if you're not open the money won't come in regardless but I've seen those doing weddings, music events, dinners fostering local chefs and local produce, Halloween, etc are what have helped buffer a poor ski season.

It's pretty saddening to hear that 30-50% of restaurants stand a good chance of not surviving .... can't imagine ski resorts being too different.

I'm gonna give it a go to hit local this year as much as possible given I've written off western trips.

 

[Slim]

@wallyk , why are you not excited to ski Minnesota this year?

I agree, that most of the time, the skiing isn’t that exciting, but it’s not any worse this year, is it?
I certainly plan on doing more skiing in Minnesota and the UP this year, simply because of my wife not being able to take as much vacation(works in hospital), and not wanting to fly out west.

 

[Slim]

Mont du Lac plans to open on Thanksgiving.
Spirit Mountain plans to open November 27, which is pretty much theit normal opening date.

 

[wallyk]

@wallyk , why are you not excited to ski Minnesota this year?

I agree, that most of the time, the skiing isn’t that exciting, but it’s not any worse this year, is it?

Hey Slim.......that's actually a really good question and overall it's just an enthusiasm/mental issue with me and the kids....With interclub ski races cancelled this year (that took the wind out of my older daughter's sails). With the lodges restricting bags /occupant levels ( my 8 year old has "problems" with the cold and likes to color/read so I cancelled her pass this year), For the first time I can remember I'm having a hard time getting psyched up to ski. I had to cancel our family winter trip, my buddies are unsure about that trip, and with business travel halted that means no skiing Europe. Honestly these are total first world problems.

Enough with the complaints. Once I hit that first run things and bend the MX 74's things will change.....but 2020/21 will be different.

If memory serves me correct, you ski Spirit? Think that Minnesota needs a meetup this year.