Going to be an exciting finish for the overall. Looks like Gut is keeping her form fron World Champs (wasn't sure if she would or have a lull after it) which will certainly apply some pressure to Petra.
Hopefully Petra isn't completly gassed and can make a run herself....some challange given how well Leinsberger is skiing SL so Vholva isn't exactly a lock to win the upcoming SL races.
I wrote this last night but never hit "send". No change in thinking on my part, Gut-B doing what she needs to, PV skiing today about as I expected. On the men's side, Pintu did "add" to his lead....by a whopping 5 points. Good day for Odermatt, right on his heels.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I agree, this should be very interesting. I like pondering this stuff at this time of year, particularly in these COVID times.
In fact, we should have a better handle on things in a couple of days. Not saying that Gut-B is going to win both the next DH and the SG, but I would look for maybe one win and one podium. She is skiing SO well, and has historically skied her best at this time of the year. Plus this one's in Italy, which is essentially home.
So today, Gut-B got the winner's 100 points. PV was tied for 9th, 29 points. 71 point advantage for LG-B. It's hard to get a handle on what to expect from PV. She's had a two DH results over 25th, and a 4th and 7th, then today. SG? Better, one 2nd, a 6th, a 9th and a 10th.
LG-B just looks to be in the zone and very happy. NO stress. Let's assume that she piles up points in these two remaining speed races {before the two at WC Finals.} If she is to win the overall, she MUST "kill this weekend." She's up by 29 points. I think she could possibly come out of this weekend with a 150 point lead. Not easy.
Then we have, before WC Finals, a GS and a SL at Jasna. PV will at least podium in the SL{barring disaster}, has a good chance to win, and once again L G-B must put points on her in the GS {Because LG-B is not racing SL.} If everything goes well for both, there will still be a lead for L G-B, but something more like 50, 60, 70 points?
That lead should vanish at Are, with the two SL's, if PV is remotely dialed in. Does not need to be her best. If she IS back to her "best form", the overall race swings back to her, with let's say at least a 100 point lead. Could be a LOT more.
Then we go to WCF's. PV will have to race all four events. G-B will race three. For this to end up with her winning, G-B will need to be on the podium in the DH and SG, IMO.....and darn close in the GS. PV will need to be pretty mediocre {for her} in the speed, hold her own in the GS. My hunch is that we go into the final event {the GS} with PV having a good lead. I dunno......again 50, 60, 70 points. If PV really kills it in the SL, she may be leading going into the GS by more that 100 points.....checkmate, globe secured before the final GS. Game over.
I think that PV is close to GASSED. I don't think there is a question about it. She needs to hold it together over 10 more race starts, the last on 3/21. Just over three weeks. And she needs to perform, and keep adding points. No DNF's. Her last tech DNF was at Levi in fall 2019. Extreme rarity. But, I'll bet that she is on fumes, or close. Her coach previously worked with Maze, and pretty much ended her career doing the same program. Let's hope that PV is more fit and in a better position.
If L G-B can pull this off, that's a BIG upset to my thinking. I think the big overall favorite still has to be PV. BIG.
Going to be REALLY interesting to watch. Let's hope they both stay healthy and ski well. Fun to see a race for the globe like this in an otherwise weird year.
On the men's side. As they get ready for 2 GS's this weekend in Bansko, Pintu has a 225 point lead over Odermatt. If Pintu skis well and adds to that margin by a decent amount, I think it's going to be enough of a lead for him to maintain and make it very hard, if not impossible for Odermatt. If Odermatt eats into that lead, it gets VERY interesting.
Nice to see NOT all locked up. Sold be fun to watch and follow!
Edit.....nowit's nine race starts for PV......