Will pass deferrals be leverage for larger IKON and EPIC price increases?

[Errand Wolfe]

If a large number of people defer passes in 20/21 will that give the pass pricers leverage to raise the starting rate by $80+ next year?

2008/9 season the Epic pass started at $579
2020/21 season Epic pass started at $999

They've accomplished this through incremental increases of $30-$60 per season adding mountains along the way to justify the price increases.

A look into my madness - For the people who don't defer, if the reservations work and everyone is happy then plenty of room for price increase. If the season goes poorly the people who didn't defer are essentially telling the corporation that the price was set too low and they'd pay more to ski. I'd imagine they'll be people on both sides of that fence. The people who deferred would then be facing a choice of taking a $999 loss or ponying up and paying the bigger increase. Additional churn could happen but not likely among the group who deferred which could offset any loss of pass sales. Either way people are not, for the most part, going to ski like normal this season so there will be pent up demand going into the 21/22 if we're clear of COVID.

What say you? Will we see the largest ever price increase for IKON and EPIC passes in the 2021/22 season?


P.S. I'm surely overthinking it. We've reached product parity. It's Verizon vs. AT&T and both companies are fine plodding along with the $30 increases year over year. Where you live and what product your friends choose is more important to most than the actual product.

 

[raytseng]

It can be leverage,

But I don't think they will choose to increase prices drastically next year.

These two companies are still thinking long term; so the competition isn't for passholder guest pass $; but between epic/ikon/independent to capture passholders and capture the industry as a whole.

If they keep the same course and have relatively low passes next year, they still make half the money from on-mtn services or more; even up to giving away access for free and packing the resorts. So passholder money isn't the end-all, be all.

Then, loss-leader pass pricing for a couple more years can hasten killing off the independents and allows MTN or Alterra to scoop them up cheap or apply extra pressure to join the network. Accelerating the long term plan to scoop up all the resorts into the network and be a monopoly/duopoly a couple years faster at potentially at firesale prices, could be worth as much as what the short-term extra pass money could bring in.

The cost to get capital next year should be relatively low as there will be programs to restart the economy, so the big corps should be able get money cheap to run things, so they shouldn't be in a crunch to need to extract money from pass sales so immediately.

 

[Johnny V.]

I think if they bump it up too much on deferrals the howls will be loud, including my own. I'm expecting $100-200 on the Ikon base. Less, and I'll be pleasantly surprised, slightly more and I won't be happy, but will cough it up and do my best to get my moneys worth.

 

[BLspruce2]

There may but not much we can do about it. I am just hoping to be able to ski next year.

 

[Tony S]

If a large number of people defer passes in 20/21 will that give the pass pricers leverage to raise the starting rate by $80+ next year?

2008/9 season the Epic pass started at $579
2020/21 season Epic pass started at $999

They've accomplished this through incremental increases of $30-$60 per season adding mountains along the way to justify the price increases.

A look into my madness - For the people who don't defer, if the reservations work and everyone is happy then plenty of room for price increase. If the season goes poorly the people who didn't defer are essentially telling the corporation that the price was set too low and they'd pay more to ski. I'd imagine they'll be people on both sides of that fence. The people who deferred would then be facing a choice of taking a $999 loss or ponying up and paying the bigger increase. Additional churn could happen but not likely among the group who deferred which could offset any loss of pass sales. Either way people are not, for the most part, going to ski like normal this season so there will be pent up demand going into the 21/22 if we're clear of COVID.

What say you? Will we see the largest ever price increase for IKON and EPIC passes in the 2021/22 season?


P.S. I'm surely overthinking it. We've reached product parity. It's Verizon vs. AT&T and both companies are fine plodding along with the $30 increases year over year. Where you live and what product your friends choose is more important to most than the actual product.

Consider all the people who are at the simmering rage level with respect to Vail's multiple egregious failures this season on the customer service and communications fronts. If I were Vail I would be slow to poke the bear with big price hikes.

Ikon, not so sure.

I do suspect that smaller / local / indy areas are going to see a boost next year, as a carryover from demonstrable good will and communications that they have shown during this difficult season. I can see disgruntled easterners whose former "local" areas have been assimilated into the oblivious Borg - Wildcat comes immediately to mind - continuing their moves toward smaller areas and more backcountry adventures.

In general I think people are re-learning a lesson with regard to ski passes that we've already learned about online shopping. Specifically, it's all a great deal and a great convenience until something goes wrong. Then there is no human you can buttonhole and hold accountable. There is no proprietor whose office door you can knock on, no manager whom you can insist on seeing. Basically you have no recourse but to join the serfs pounding their wooden hoes ineffectually on the outermost walls of the castle.

Story from ten days ago: I'm riding the lift at Saddleback - their first week - when I hear something just behind me that sounds like an explosion. Something happened with the snowmaking line that runs under the chair. One of the connections gave out, sending a geyser of water 50 feet or more into the air. (I think there was some kind of operator error nearby on the hill.) One poor guy, in particular, got soaked while riding the lift. Later on, I was taking a break on the deck when General Manager Andy Shephard came out looking for the guy. He found him. I overheard the whole conversation, which basically went, "We're so sorry, are you okay, can we comp you a ticket," etc. etc.

I think this kind of thing is what people are going to take away from this season, and it's going to affect how they spend their ski budgets going forward. In times of adversity you see the quality humans come out of hiding, and you see the others go into it.

 

[OldJeep]

If they did raise them it would likely be due to all the revenue loss, of which pass defferals are only a small piece.

 

[Ogg]

I don't think people are much happier with Ikon than Epic this season. I expect the sentiment to get worse as more people realize they can't get a reservation while their buddy just bought a day ticket.

 

[Itinerant skier]

I don't think people are much happier with Ikon than Epic this season. I expect the sentiment to get worse as more people realize they can't get a reservation while their buddy just bought a day ticket.

Yep. I have no problem with resorts using a reservation system if they need to control capacity. It's wrong though to limit the reservations available to pass holders if you're still selling day tickets.

 

[Ogg]

Yep. I have no problem with resorts using a reservation system if they need to control capacity. It's wrong though to limit the reservations available to pass holders if you're still selling day tickets.

I posted a response to a comment on the Ikon pass holders FB page calling them out for it. I must have struck a nerve because I got a direct response to my comment from Ikon passing the buck to the individual resorts.

 

[Wilhelmson]

More likely to selectively raise prices on the peripherals. Keep the membership fee low and charge on the back end. Maybe just disable your ad blocker.

The other way to look at it is they are built to overcome a bad year or two and diversified portfolios mean our favorite ski areas stay open.

 

[Tony S]

I posted a response to a comment on the Ikon pass holders FB page calling them out for it. I must have struck a nerve because I got a direct response to my comment from Ikon passing the buck to the individual resorts.

Excerpt from my third note to Ikon on this topic, and their completely canned impersonal form letter follow.

You did not respond to my question ...

What I am seeing is that areas have a set quota for Ikon Passes specifically. ... There is nothing that I recall in the marketing materials about the Ikon Pass that talks about not being able to redeem the pass for a ticket based on quotas, when non passholders are still getting on the hill.

Please respond. Thanks.

Thank you for contacting the Season Pass Contact Center.
Thank you for your patience and understanding as we navigate this unusual winter and manage capacity to help keep skiers and riders safe. Each Ikon Pass destination that requires reservations for the 20/21 season sets their own Ikon Pass capacity numbers as well as determines what products are available for purchase at the resort on any given day. Capacity numbers are often determined by available terrain, county regulations and other factors. If you are unfortunately not able to make a reservation on a selected day through the Ikon Pass reservation system, it means that the allotment given to Ikon Pass by the destination on that day has already been fully reserved. Please continue to check back as inventory can open up based on pass holder cancelations or destination inventory increases.
Policies will vary by destination and/or may be subject to change without notice. For the best experience, please contact each destination in advance to confirm guidelines, potential restrictions, closures and/or advance reservations requirements.
Sincerely,
Erin
Ikon Pass Support
Alterra Mountain Company
888-365-IKON (888.365.4566)
www.IkonPass.com

 

[Wade]

Excerpt from my third note to Ikon on this topic, and their completely canned impersonal form letter follow.

What response are you looking for from Alterra?

At partner resorts, I think it’s safe to assume each resort’s policies with regards access for season pass holders, day ticket purchasers, and Ikon pass holders are set by the management of the individual resort, not by Alterra. I don’t think the same issue exists at any Alterra owned resorts.

I get why you’re pissed off, but as far as I can tell, at the beginning of the season, Alterra made pass holders aware of which partner resorts required reservations. I don’t think they made any claims on behalf of those partner resorts about how many slots would be available for Ikon pass holders, and what balance those resorts would strike between different types of customers.

Your gripe seems to be with the resort rather than with Alterra.

 

[Tony S]

Your gripe seems to be with the resort rather than with Alterra.

Nope. Could not disagree more. Not my circus, not my monkeys. I didn't give any resort any money. I gave Alterra a boatload of money. Therefore my gripe is totally with Alterra; it's their responsibility to make sure that resorts deliver on the product that Alterra promised its customers. Otherwise it's deception at best. It comes down to what Ogg already said above: "when people realize they can't get a reservation while their buddy just bought a day ticket."

 

[raytseng]

agree with Tony. in essense all the promises and interpretations were unlimited and capacity limits would be for covid, not for extra profit.

I mentioned before but this is a blackout where at a particular point in time you are locked out, but you can pay more then you get access to ski, but deal was pass was unlimited and no blackouts.

On the same token i dont think "Erin" from customer service can do anything to help except pass on her directed message.
Instead get that Northstar parking lot lawfirm lined up. They should be chomping at the bit as lift access is so much more of a material breach than a change in parking policy

 

[Tony S]

n essense all the promises and interpretations were unlimited and capacity limits would be for covid, not for extra profit.

I mentioned before but in essense this is a blackout where at a particular point in time you can pay more than you can ski, but deal was pass was unlimited and no blackouts.

Exactly. Well put.

 

[Tony S]

On the same token i dont think "Erin" from customer service can do anything to help except pass on her directed message.

Of course she can. For starters, she could say, "Hey there, Tony S. Yeah, this kind of sucks, but here's the deal. Meanwhile I will bring this up at our staff meeting with my manager, so-and-so." At a minimum I would get the sense that someone was actually absorbing the input and trying to push it up the stack.

 

[raytseng]

Well if her work instructions were to reply with this exact form and say nothing else than that was her exact instructions.

That's my guess given the boilerplate nature of the response.

 

[Wade]

Nope. Could not disagree more. Not my circus, not my monkeys. I didn't give any resort any money. I gave Alterra a boatload of money. Therefore my gripe is totally with Alterra; it's their responsibility to make sure that resorts deliver on the product that Alterra promised its customers. Otherwise it's deception at best. It comes down to what Ogg already said above: "when people realize they can't get a reservation while their buddy just bought a day ticket."

Which promise did Alterra make to its customers that it is now breaking? If someone assumed the pass they were buying would work exactly the same as last season, I can see why they’d think they weren’t getting what they paid for. Alterra sent out a ton of communication around this though explaining how this season would be different, and they gave pass holders an opportunity to opt out of using their pass this season and defer
until next season if they didn’t like it.

The language on the Ikon website states:

“Currently, lift access reservations are not required for Ikon Pass holders at most Ikon Pass destinations. Daily reservation capacity numbers are provided by individual Ikon Pass destinations and may be determined by available terrain, county regulations and other factors.Be sure to check back often and with each Ikon Pass destination’s website to review specific and updated local access and policy information as resort specific restrictions may apply and details may change.”

And they then go on to show which resorts require reservations and provide links to the relevant part of each of those resorts’ websites.

I just cut and pasted that now, but I’m pretty sure that is consistent with what I read at the start of the season.

Alterra was clear that some resorts would require reservations, that those resorts (not Alterra) would determine how many reservations they would accept, and that things may change during the year. I didn’t read anything from Alterra representing how the resorts requiring reservations would allocate capacity between different types of customers.

 

[Tony S]

Well if her work instructions were to reply with this exact form and say nothing else than that was her exact instructions.

If "Erin" is a robot then I agree, but shame on Alterra in that case for the additional layer of deception.

If Erin is a human being paid money to provide actual service to customers, and if she has been on the job more than a week, then her boss should be fired.

 

[Tony S]

Which promise did Alterra make to its customers that it is now breaking? If someone assumed the pass they were buying would work exactly the same as last season, I can see why they’d think they weren’t getting what they paid for. Alterra sent out a ton of communication around this though explaining how this season would be different, and they gave pass holders an opportunity to opt out of using their pass this season and defer
until next season if they didn’t like it.

The language on the Ikon website states:

“Currently, lift access reservations are not required for Ikon Pass holders at most Ikon Pass destinations. Daily reservation capacity numbers are provided by individual Ikon Pass destinations and may be determined by available terrain, county regulations and other factors.Be sure to check back often and with each Ikon Pass destination’s website to review specific and updated local access and policy information as resort specific restrictions may apply and details may change.”

And they then go on to show which resorts require reservations and provide links to the relevant part of each of those resorts’ websites.

I just cut and pasted that now, but I’m pretty sure that is consistent with what I read at the start of the season.

Alterra was clear that some resorts would require reservations, that those resorts (not Alterra) would determine how many reservations they would accept, and that things may change during the year. I didn’t read anything from Alterra representing how the resorts requiring reservations would allocate capacity between different types of customers.

What you are describing is a system where there are coach seats and first class seats. Ikon passholders have unlimited access to coach seats only. Once coach seats are sold out, I can still fly to my destination on the plane, but only if I pay in full for a brand new first class ticket entirely outside of Ikon. In other words, I can buy my way to the head of the line.

There was nothing remotely like this stated or implied in the Ikon pitches. As Ray stated eloquently up thread, the clear implication of all the Covid disclaimers was that limitations on general access to tickets due to Covid might be expected. What I'm describing is limitations on access to tickets based on suddenly becoming a second class citizen in an ad hoc tier system invented by resorts.

I totally agree that the resorts have invented this on the fly and put Ikon in an awkward position. What I don't agree with is that it is therefore somehow my problem. Ikon needs to stand behind the service it offered. If it can't do that it should simply give customers their money back outright.
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