Avalanche Situation

[Primoz]

One this is, as @Jwrags wrote, that experience doesn't always make for best judgement. The other thing is, that you have almost zero chance to get into avalanche, if you go out into avi terrain once a year, regardless how clueless you are and regardless how dangerous it is. If you repeat that every day, you chances to get caught in avalanche are getting bigger and bigger. It's really pure statistics. The more you are in dangerous terrain, more chances you have to get caught. Here comes into play experience. With more experience you make better decisions, but you also spend more time out there. So it's not really that surprising that looking strictly on %, probably more experienced BC skiers get caught in avalanche then non-experienced. That doesn't mean non-experienced skiers make better decision, it's just that they spent way less time out there, and as avalanches are still relatively rare, they have less chances to get caught.
But back to what @Jwrags wrote, being out there a lot it also means you slowly rise level of "accepted risk". What would be totally no go for someone who's out there for first time, it's perfectly fine condition for some experienced users. Most of time it really is totally fine, but as snow is not really 100% exact science, sometimes things go wrong.

 

[Mike King]

One this is, as @Jwrags wrote, that experience doesn't always make for best judgement. The other thing is, that you have almost zero chance to get into avalanche, if you go out into avi terrain once a year, regardless how clueless you are and regardless how dangerous it is. If you repeat that every day, you chances to get caught in avalanche are getting bigger and bigger. It's really pure statistics. The more you are in dangerous terrain, more chances you have to get caught. Here comes into play experience. With more experience you make better decisions, but you also spend more time out there. So it's not really that surprising that looking strictly on %, probably more experienced BC skiers get caught in avalanche then non-experienced. That doesn't mean non-experienced skiers make better decision, it's just that they spent way less time out there, and as avalanches are still relatively rare, they have less chances to get caught.
But back to what @Jwrags wrote, being out there a lot it also means you slowly rise level of "accepted risk". What would be totally no go for someone who's out there for first time, it's perfectly fine condition for some experienced users. Most of time it really is totally fine, but as snow is not really 100% exact science, sometimes things go wrong.

True, but there is also the expertise trap. As you said, avalanches are very low probability events. As you spend all of that time traveling in avalanche terrain without a consequence, your experience is that it won't slide. So despite all of your training, the experience of not having an event may lead you to a belief that an event won't occur. In some ways, experience IS the problem.

 

[LiquidFeet]

Experience does not always make for the best judgement. The same has been shown in surgery where there is a bimodal distribution of complications. There is the early spike because of the lack of knowledge/experience and then a later spike where the experience makes you think you are smart enough to avoid the complication. I would bet the same is true with backcountry skiing.

....being out there a lot it also means you slowly rise level of "accepted risk". What would be totally no go for someone who's out there for first time, it's perfectly fine condition for some experienced users. Most of time it really is totally fine, but as snow is not really 100% exact science, sometimes things go wrong.

Replace "snow" and "surgery" with the virus we're dealing with. Exposing oneself to others is similar. Most of the time nothing happens, no one gets sick. People go out in public more often, get close to each other, pull masks down, spend time indoors with others, nothing happens. Sometimes it does. The results can be mild, or catastrophic.

 

[Jim Kenney]

If you haven't watched the latest Ski Talk Live episode from Jan 27, 2021, it's very sobering and unfortunately very timely. It includes discussion with avi experts and survivors:
Dan Egan quote, "the more you know, the more danger you are in!"

 

[Rod9301]

People take about skiing low angle terrain while there is a deeply buried faceted layer.

Look at this video and see if you still want to do this.

 

[LiquidFeet]

Hey all you people out there in avalanche terriroty...
Is this faceted snow down below the same as corn?

 

[Rod9301]

Hey all you people out there in avalanche terriroty...
Is this faceted snow down below the same as corn?

No, it's non cohesive snow, feels like sugar, can't make a snow ball with it.

Happens when there's a thin snowpack and cold temperature.

 

[pais alto]

Hey all you people out there in avalanche terriroty...
Is this faceted snow down below the same as corn?

No. Corn is a consolidated surface condition created from repeated freeze-thaw cycles that produce rounded crystals. Facets are loose, angular, unconsolidated, and buried - created by (relatively) warm ground and very cold air temps causing H2O vapor to rise, then freeze.

Edit: Like @Rod9301 said, very sugary.

Classifications of snow - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[locknload]

I think that there is a certain euphoria about powder skiing that clouds the mind and leads to poor decision making.

I am not a back country skier but I have noticed myself on powder days inbounds in the past often try to squeeze in that extra powder turn in a unskied patch very close to a tree or ditch or do other riskier things. These days I consciously dial things back in the pow and try not to get too wound up.

There absolutely is this type of euphoria in bounds and out of bounds. What's interesting is that many of the accidents/fatalities this year have involved experienced BC skiers and mountaineers. The Avvy reports very rarely include interviews with survivors...but understand the decision making of folks involved in these incidents would be very helpful to the community. There is a risk that as you know more...you start to believe that you can "outsmart the dragon" as Segbrown said. In years like this, where its so unstable, just avoiding the risk e.g. riding/traveling in BC areas where the risk of sliding is slim to none is your best bet...IF you want to come home at the end of the day...thats what I prioritize.

 

[locknload]

No, it's non cohesive snow, feels like sugar, can't make a snow ball with it.

Happens when there's a thin snowpack and cold temperature.

And the snow crystals can't bond together properly....

 

[Erik Timmerman]

Kind of like buried hoar frost, right?

 

[pais alto]

Kind of like buried hoar frost, right?

Facets are, yes. Created in much the same way.

 

[locknload]

One this is, as @Jwrags wrote, that experience doesn't always make for best judgement. The other thing is, that you have almost zero chance to get into avalanche, if you go out into avi terrain once a year, regardless how clueless you are and regardless how dangerous it is. If you repeat that every day, you chances to get caught in avalanche are getting bigger and bigger. It's really pure statistics. The more you are in dangerous terrain, more chances you have to get caught. Here comes into play experience. With more experience you make better decisions, but you also spend more time out there. So it's not really that surprising that looking strictly on %, probably more experienced BC skiers get caught in avalanche then non-experienced. That doesn't mean non-experienced skiers make better decision, it's just that they spent way less time out there, and as avalanches are still relatively rare, they have less chances to get caught.
But back to what @Jwrags wrote, being out there a lot it also means you slowly rise level of "accepted risk". What would be totally no go for someone who's out there for first time, it's perfectly fine condition for some experienced users. Most of time it really is totally fine, but as snow is not really 100% exact science, sometimes things go wrong.

Really good point. The more you have been out there you change your level of "accepted risk" intentionally OR unintentionally. Its also true that the more you ski/ride and nothing happens you may start to think you have it "figured out".....but it so complex and the snowpack is always changing.

 

[mdf]

Replace "snow" and "surgery" with the virus we're dealing with. Exposing oneself to others is similar. Most of the time nothing happens, no one gets sick. People go out in public more often, get close to each other, pull masks down, spend time indoors with others, nothing happens. Sometimes it does. The results can be mild, or catastrophic.

Exactly. Low probability, high consequence events fool our evolved-in intuitive reasoning methods.

 

[Lauren]

Here’s a pretty fantastic description of faceted snow for those asking about it. Much better than I could ever give: https://avalanche.org/avalanche-encyclopedia/faceted-snow/

 

[skix]

There absolutely is this type of euphoria in bounds and out of bounds. What's interesting is that many of the accidents/fatalities this year have involved experienced BC skiers and mountaineers. The Avvy reports very rarely include interviews with survivors...but understand the decision making of folks involved in these incidents would be very helpful to the community. There is a risk that as you know more...you start to believe that you can "outsmart the dragon" as Segbrown said. In years like this, where its so unstable, just avoiding the risk e.g. riding/traveling in BC areas where the risk of sliding is slim to none is your best bet...IF you want to come home at the end of the day...thats what I prioritize.

The Squaretop, Park City, Utah avalanche last week (Jan 1st, 2021) did have an interview with the survivor that was revealing of mindset. The report is thorough with many lessons learned. Excerpt:

On Saturday, January 30, Skier 1, a 57-year old male from Park City, Utah, was killed in an avalanche on Square Top Peak along the Park City ridgeline in the backcountry adjacent to Canyons Village of the Park City Mountain Resort (PCMR).​

​

Skier 1 and his partner read the avalanche forecast for that day and were very familiar with the area, having skied there for many years. They took 2 previous runs in the backcountry using the 9990 chairlift at PCMR for access. Their first and second runs were just south of Cone Head in the Owen's Line area. Both runs are about 0.6 miles to the south of the 9990 chairlift. They did not see any avalanches, cracking, collapsing, or other signs of unstable snow. ​

​

They both carried avalanche rescue gear (transceiver/probe/shovel), and they did not dig a snowpit at any point during the day.​

​

For their last run in the backcountry, they rode the 9990 chairlift, exited the resort through a gate, and entered the backcountry to ascend Square Top, a peak about 0.5 miles to the north. At approximately 3 p.m., they descended a ridge known as "Square Top Sneak." ​

​

Approximately 2/3 of the way down the ridge, they stopped to discuss where to go next, as marked in the photo below. Skier 1 wanted to descend a relatively short 37 degree slope below them, and his partner did not. His partner wanted to stay on the ridge for the final portion of his run. The pair decided that the partner would wait and watch Skier 1 while he descended before skiing an alternate route down the ridge and regrouping below. The avalanche occurred just as Skier 1 entered the slope before he had a chance to turn downhill. He was caught, carried, and almost fully buried in the avalanche.​

...​

The partner noted being tired before they began their descent of Square Top. ​

...​

We asked Skier 1's partner what he wanted to share, and these paraphrased bullet points are what he said:​

• When any group member feels uncomfortable about riding a slope, that unease should be enough for the rest of the group not to ski it as well. He regrets not being more forceful in his desire to stay off the slope that avalanched. It is common for people in a group to have different opinions on what they think they should ski or ride, and it is important to communicate and understand the reason for those differences.
• We often practice avalanche rescue as if we start at the bottom or the top. Consider practicing how you would perform a search starting at the side of the avalanche. The partner said it was difficult to know if the victim was uphill or downhill from where he started his search.

CAIC

 

[DanoT]

Here’s a pretty fantastic description of faceted snow for those asking about it. Much better if a description than I could ever give: https://avalanche.org/avalanche-encyclopedia/faceted-snow/

^^^Very interesting info about the impact of temperature variants. On trips to both Aspen and Steamboat I have woken up to 0*F and then seen it go to 33 or 34*F by the afternoon. While it can get above freezing in the Sun Peaks Village as well as the base area at other B.C. ski resorts, if it starts out that far below freezing in the morning, there ain't gonna be any mud puddles by noon.

 

[crgildart]

IF there was a way to bury cooling coils under a 100 acres of ski trails, the kind of cooling coils they use for outdoor ice rinks, to keep the ground a cool, constant temperature under the snow, would that make the terrain less prone to breaking loose and killing people? I know it's literally a pipe dream, but with climate change, resorts right on the rain snow lines might be discussing such options to keep viable in general.

 

[SBrown]

^^^Very interesting info about the impact of temperature variants. On trips to both Aspen and Steamboat I have woken up to 0*F and then seen it go to 33 or 34*F by the afternoon. While it can get above freezing in the Sun Peaks Village as well as the base area at other B.C. ski resorts, if it starts out that far below freezing in the morning, there ain't gonna be any mud puddles by noon.

Very common here. I think it's why corn season isn't that great here, as well. You have a tiny window and then it turns to mush. Sun at altitude is very intense.

 

[locknload]

The Squaretop, Park City, Utah avalanche last week (Jan 1st, 2021) did have an interview with the survivor that was revealing of mindset. The report is thorough with many lessons learned. Excerpt:

On Saturday, January 30, Skier 1, a 57-year old male from Park City, Utah, was killed in an avalanche on Square Top Peak along the Park City ridgeline in the backcountry adjacent to Canyons Village of the Park City Mountain Resort (PCMR).​

​

Skier 1 and his partner read the avalanche forecast for that day and were very familiar with the area, having skied there for many years. They took 2 previous runs in the backcountry using the 9990 chairlift at PCMR for access. Their first and second runs were just south of Cone Head in the Owen's Line area. Both runs are about 0.6 miles to the south of the 9990 chairlift. They did not see any avalanches, cracking, collapsing, or other signs of unstable snow. ​

​

They both carried avalanche rescue gear (transceiver/probe/shovel), and they did not dig a snowpit at any point during the day.​

​

For their last run in the backcountry, they rode the 9990 chairlift, exited the resort through a gate, and entered the backcountry to ascend Square Top, a peak about 0.5 miles to the north. At approximately 3 p.m., they descended a ridge known as "Square Top Sneak." ​

​

Approximately 2/3 of the way down the ridge, they stopped to discuss where to go next, as marked in the photo below. Skier 1 wanted to descend a relatively short 37 degree slope below them, and his partner did not. His partner wanted to stay on the ridge for the final portion of his run. The pair decided that the partner would wait and watch Skier 1 while he descended before skiing an alternate route down the ridge and regrouping below. The avalanche occurred just as Skier 1 entered the slope before he had a chance to turn downhill. He was caught, carried, and almost fully buried in the avalanche.​

...​

The partner noted being tired before they began their descent of Square Top. ​

...​

We asked Skier 1's partner what he wanted to share, and these paraphrased bullet points are what he said:​

• When any group member feels uncomfortable about riding a slope, that unease should be enough for the rest of the group not to ski it as well. He regrets not being more forceful in his desire to stay off the slope that avalanched. It is common for people in a group to have different opinions on what they think they should ski or ride, and it is important to communicate and understand the reason for those differences.
• We often practice avalanche rescue as if we start at the bottom or the top. Consider practicing how you would perform a search starting at the side of the avalanche. The partner said it was difficult to know if the victim was uphill or downhill from where he started his search.

CAIC

Read that report..it was good. And yet the ONE thing it misses..is what made the victim decide that he thought the slope was safe? Did he dig a pit? Did they debate why it might be unsafe? It was such a good report and, yet, we don't know why he decided to accept that risk and drop in when his own partner disagreed. Not judging him at all...just trying to understand what his thinking was.