I don't want to get too far off topic, but how do you figure needed electric infrastructure upgrades and new electricity generating plants are going to be paid for, other than with substantially increased electricity rates? Once nearly everyone (if that even happens) is driving EVs the cost of electricity will be comparable to buying gasoline per mile. To think otherwise is naive.
I think it’s a non issue for someone purchasing in the near future. Why aren’t people all worried about bitcoin miners? They use unbelievable amounts of electricity, then make millions in a Texas blackout to
not use electricity.
First, seems the Grid needs updating anyway. It’s old. We’d already have much more renewable energy online if the grid was in better shape. Approvals to connect are taking way too long causing some to abandon projects.
As for your electricity cost prediction 15 years out, who knows. It’s just as likely to be cheaper. It’s likely the energy sector will look very different than today. Many people will get paid from the battery in their car. Many will have home solar. Hell, early on in this transition some may leave the electric car plugged in at home to make money, and take the ice to work. Or get paid plugging in at work.
It really doesn’t matter what you or I think, ev’s are coming whether we like it or not. 2024 will be when the now dripping faucet is continuous. 2025 will be full on running.
2) People will make money on energy. They always are.
3) There will still be tons of ice cars driving around. So everyone will not be driving electric and this will slow the ramp up. Most 2 car households will hedge their bets and keep one ice car. Some one car people will just
forget the car altogether and use
TAAS as it becomes cheaper and easier. That means they’re not buying any car. Much Taas will go electric.
4) The energy sector has changing rapidly and has seen big changes in the last 5 years. Tesla is becoming an
energy company besides making cars. Now licensed in Texas to sell electricity.
But even simple things like requests to reduce load by text at certain hours can have big effects.
5) Energy and related enterprises now attract some of the best and brightest. It impacts locally and globally, and it’s interesting. When is the last time energy was interesting to smart young people, early nukes? They will likely not be working for stodgy utility companies.
6) The whole world is dealing with this. So solutions can be shared/copied/sold.
7) Grid Overload is a barrier to buying an electric car?? That’s a bit like 15-20 years ago saying, “I won’t buy a cell phone unless it works everywhere”. They didn’t work everywhere and still don’t.
What would
actually matter is you can’t get electricity for your car or it’s ridiculously expensive. I don’t think this is at all an issue in the next five years for buying an electric car. Range, cost, where to charge, etc., are real issues for people.
Ev’s and home batteries are actually part of the solution for handling peak demand. This is already happening as Tesla power walls can discharge during peak times to the grid and charge when it’s cheap. Your home battery can now be a day trader in electricity to make money at times. It’s all in the software.
Ford has partnered with Sunrun, the solar panel company. So integrating home solar to truck charging or home power will be much easier.
If electricity availability, caused by the grid or some other reason becomes an issue, then that’ll slow the adoption. But it’s just turning down the faucet. We are smack in the middle of the
beginning of a sea change. But so many things are already in place that it’s going to accelerate quickly.
8) Businesses are going to be big adopters, as are municipalities.
9) The Bans. There are some loopholes, I think we’re counting on them not happening, buying cars in other states, etc. But companies have to deal with it and plan for it now.
States requiring sales of new vehicles to zero emissions by 2035:
California, Oregon, Washington, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts.
Then there’s the the EU. New ice cars banned 2035. Allowances for synthetic e fuel after that. Who knows the effect of that.
UK- No ice after 2030, hybrids till 2035.
Japan- 2035 (Their car makers are way behind)
Companies that have announced they will stop producing ice cars:
2025- Jaguar
2027- Alfa Romeo
2028- Lotus; Chrysler
2030-
Bentley
Cadillac
Ford Europe
Lexus
Merceds-Benz
Mini
Rolls Royce
Stellantis -50% US, 100% Europe
Volvo
2035-
Chrvrolet, GMC, Buick
Ford is keeping some options open, but their investment in ev’s is enormous. $50billion globally by 2026.
GM $35 Billion through 2025
Stellantis €30billion by 2025
All this investment, you’ve got to sell them.
10) China. Chinese cars are coming. They’re likely to gain significant percentage in the US. There’s like 350 ev companies in China.
Automakers plot their moves from combustion engines to hybrids (done) to plug-ins and full battery-electric or hydrogen fuel cell cars, trucks and 18-wheelers.
www.forbes.com