Ibis: State of the State, or, this is getting out of hand

[Erik Timmerman]

Nope and won't see one this year! Would love to try it but afraid I'd end up with a gravel quiver!

 

[coskigirl]

Partly because owners don't like dirty tires. Seriously.

Oh FFS. That’s ridiculous. I’ll ask them to test it.

 

[Erik Timmerman]

I once had a new bike buyer insist that he should get a discount because his bikes tires were dirty. "You are the only person that has ever ridden it!"

 

[Decreed_It]

@Primoz you are right. At this point some of the supply chain has caught up. What has happened is that some of the big brands are buying excess supply and stockpiling it in order to crush smaller brands. The same is happening with factory time to build frames.

100% agreed on the parts/components shortage mystery. Example, my bike will ship with 175mm cranks. I need 170mm cranks. Called my shop today, they said they tried for another customer and could not source Shimano XT 8100 170mm cranks. Anywhere. Guy said if you see some, grab them. Some on Ebay in China, Taiwan, Philippines, anywhere from 10-40% markup over normal, not including shipping. Cranks.

Also, everyone make sure to support your local/independent bike shop! I called a few to see if they ever got their hands on a Ibis Ripley AF when they came out, and I guess most manufacturers now are completely skipping over small shops and just dealing with the big ones.

I'm sticking it out. Again from call to LBS today they confirmed, absolutely, the bike spec I ordered will arrive as ordered so that's good news. They clarified Ibis will ship the new, more standardized less options bikes starting with all orders May 1st and beyond. I firmly believe the big brands are sucking up the parts inventories and while it may suck for the smaller brands you can see how Shimano might take the guaranteed bulk sale to a Specialized or Trek over smaller orders from an Ibis, Yeti or Evil or Alchemy or . . . Name your killer small bike brand.

Other lbs in the area do have Specialized in stock. Pass. I bought my last one in 1998 still have it. Did get my son a new one last year but he's 11 and whatever. I'm sticking it out with my lbs small brand dealer.

Final thought we briefly shopped new Suburban, Yukon XL. Guess what? Supply chain issues on chips of all things. Recent news showed 1000s of Ford pickups sitting on a storage lot unable to be sold because . . . Chips. Biden Admin asked to invoke Defense Production Act over it.

Times are crazy friends I think the globalization just in time chickens have come home to roost. Perspective is us spoiled Americans (really looking at myself in the mirror here) are b1tch1ng because we can't get our stupid expensive fancy toys right NOW. Meanwhile got friends suffering badly in India because life saving medical gear and supply are affected by these same phenomenon. /end rant

 

[Decreed_It]

@Primoz you are right. At this point some of the supply chain has caught up. What has happened is that some of the big brands are buying excess supply and stockpiling it in order to crush smaller brands. The same is happening with factory time to build frames.

Second time I've heard this theory from somebody involved in the bike biz. I hope it's wrong, but after the past year, the big brands are REALLY flush with cash, and could easily implement this strategy.

But damn, let it be wrong.......

If you read the open letter from Ibis CEO they all but admit this. There's a photo of the warehouse full of partially built bikes, a LOT of boxes, all missing something, small part, component, whatever. They go on to state the main reason they standardized parts choices (gruppos, and suspensions, performance for Aluminum and Fox Factory for carbon) and sizing (stems, droppers) was to buy in bulk, give their suppliers reliable orders, which to me means competing as best they can with the big brands.

 

[Primoz]

@Primoz you are right. At this point some of the supply chain has caught up. What has happened is that some of the big brands are buying excess supply and stockpiling it in order to crush smaller brands. The same is happening with factory time to build frames.

I didn't even think on something like this, but it actually makes sense. Any other explanation I tried to find for this parts shortage didn't make sense, this one does. Except that friend working for Scott distributor here, said Scott has same issues. They have no parts to deliver bikes. I admit I have very very limited knowledge of bike industry, but I always thought Scott is one of big players. Am I wrong about this?

 

[Rudi Riet]

I didn't even think on something like this, but it actually makes sense. Any other explanation I tried to find for this parts shortage didn't make sense, this one does. Except that friend working for Scott distributor here, said Scott has same issues. They have no parts to deliver bikes. I admit I have very very limited knowledge of bike industry, but I always thought Scott is one of big players. Am I wrong about this?

Nope. Mid-tier fish like Scott and Jamis are taking it on the nose with the 900 pound gorillas of the industry - Trek, Specialized, Giant, Cannondale - using their huge footprint and brand appeal/awareness to stockpile OEM components. And @Primoz: Scott is a bigger player in Europe than in the States or worldwide. Their dealer network in the U.S. is tiny compared to the big four.

To wit: there's a photo I saw last week of a pre-shipment assembly line of a mid-tier company's mid-level road bikes (think Ultegra, Force, or Potenza groupsets). They're all completely built up and ready to ship, looking great - save for chains. Chains - especially in 11-speed and higher models - are extremely rare to find right now. What stock there is can be pricey.

I was talking with a friend who runs a LBS in DC whose primary business is custom builds and repairs. He says that some components can only be found in retail channels, rather than the usual wholesale or factory-direct models. He said that finding SRAM Red eTap AXS rear derailleurs (he had three customer builds specifying this drivetrain) meant having to go to the full retail channel to find anything available. The cost is a double hit: the customer has to pay more for the part, and the LBS makes a smaller margin because they're loathe to pass along the cost hit in full force to the customer.

Personally, I stocked up on the expendable parts on my bikes - chains, brake pads, cables - because the supply chain was looking really bad. I'd hoped to have this be an overreaction. Alas, it's been a smart move. The KMC chains I use (X10.93 and X11, depending on the bike) used to cost around $20 in pre-pandemic times. Currently the X11 chain runs between $40 and $50 due to short supply and demand steadily rising as spring comes to the northern hemisphere. The X10 hasn't risen quite as much as there are fewer 10-speed setups used/sold these days. I'm swapping my chains out every 2,000 miles to preserve my cassettes, which are now exceedingly hard to get and won't be easy to get until early 2022 at the earliest (and I also have access to wholesale channels and let's just say it's slim pickings for quite a few core components).

@Decreed_It: you definitely want to wait it out on that XT8100 crank. If you're after one of the bonded Hollowtech cranksets it's always best to get them new and with a full factory warranty (something that's not always the case with eBay listings from many Asian sources - lots of counterfeits). Either that or try for a lower end model if you can stomach the weight and aesthetic differences. Used bonded Hollotech crankarms are a crapshoot because you seldom know how they've been treated, and these cranks are known for separating under extended hard use and abuse - thus why you want one that's legitimately backed by the OEM warranty.

 

[Tony Storaro]

Welcome to the club. Specialized first increased the price for my SL7 Tarmac and then simply said: We wont be able to deliver. Sorry.

A blessing in disguise as it turned out as I expanded my quiver with 9 pairs of new skis this season and still have some change left for another 3 or 4.

 

[Tony Storaro]

But for Shimano and to some extend Sram

What I heard is that it was due to closures at their factories in China (if I am not mistaken) for quite a long time and then shortage of shipping containers...or something. Anyway, it was all blamed on the Covid related disruption in logistics.
Shimano parts are still in severe shortage in Europe.

BTW About SRAM: In my opinion their brakes suck, but the groupsets (X01 and XX1) are not bad.

P.S. I was also extremely lucky in this regard: I bought my Scott Spark RC at the latest-est possible moment before Covid struck and then I found an awesome deal on Giant TCR Advanced Pro which I upgraded to full Ultregra, so the cycling season is shaping up nicely and I can afford to wait till 2022 for a new bike.

 

[Decreed_It]

@Decreed_It: you definitely want to wait it out on that XT8100 crank. If you're after one of the bonded Hollowtech cranksets it's always best to get them new and with a full factory warranty (something that's not always the case with eBay listings from many Asian sources - lots of counterfeits). Either that or try for a lower end model if you can stomach the weight and aesthetic differences. Used bonded Hollotech crankarms are a crapshoot because you seldom know how they've been treated, and these cranks are known for separating under extended hard use and abuse - thus why you want one that's legitimately backed by the OEM warranty.

@Rudi Riet I very much appreciate this info you probably saved me an expensive mistake. I can make do with the 175mm that ship on the bike for a bit and make sure I get new OEM from a reputable source, even if that takes a few more months (years?!?). The knowledge and experience shared here never ceases to amaze and delight, thanks all for such great exchange.

 

[Primoz]

@Rudi Riet thanks for correction. I knew Giant is what their name says, as from what I know, they own half of other brands too and most of production channels in China, but for others I didn't think it's that much, and I didn't think Scott is middle/small player worldwide (worldwide is what matters anyway).
I normally don't break things much, so hopefully this year it will stay same, but I just read whole bunch of people have issues with Shimano M9100/M8100 12speed shifters, and they are, at least in Europe, impossible to get, so I hope I won't be one of them
@Tony Storaro for Shimano they should, if you believe that, still produce all top end components in their Japanese factories, and Japan wasn't really hit all that hard with corona. But even then, that was year ago, nowadays business is going on more or less normally for quite some time, yet 80% of Shimano stuff is still impossible to get, at least in EU. So that what @Erik Timmerman wrote makes perfect sense to me now.

Now slightly off topic. Chains and changing them ever 2000km. Try wax instead of oil/sprays. I tried that last season, and it's amazing. Normally I was changing them once or twice a season (my normal season is about 3000-3500km and about 100.000 height meters). I changed them when they were around 0.70% stretched, and as I wrote it was either on the end of season to get bike ready for new one, or month before that, slightly dependent of the year. They were always clean, properly oiled etc, so you could say they were well maintained.
Last season I saw some video from one Australian about this wax thing and, as last year I still had 11 speed and XT chain was something like 15eur, I said lets try, I can't lose much anyway. I used plain paraffin, which costs something like 3eur/kg (which is supply that will last me for next 10 years), so nothing fancy for 100s of euros. Cleaning new chain and degreesing takes little longer, but that's just once. Then dip into wax, and you are good to go for some 300-400km (on mtb). Then wipe, dip in wax again and let it cool for another 300-400km. On the end of season, my chain with more km and about 20% more height meters then normally, was stretched for 0.10%, which means, if my frame wouldn't be replaced, and I was forced to move to 1x12speed, chain would be good for another 2 seasons, at least.
And nicest thing with this is, it's perfectly clean all the time. After those 300-400km, when you take it off to wax it again, you can do this without gloves and your hands are clean. All cogs on cassette are clean, chain is clean, derrailour jockeys are clea and front chainring is clean, so that's even more important then chain life

 

[Tony Storaro]

But even then, that was year ago, nowadays business is going on more or less normally for quite some time, yet 80% of Shimano stuff is still impossible to get, at least in EU. So that what @Erik Timmerman wrote makes perfect sense to me now.

Absolutely, yes. To me too. The b*stards.

 

[cantunamunch]

Last season I saw some video from one Australian about this wax thing and, as last year I still had 11 speed and XT chain was something like 15eur, I said lets try, I can't lose much anyway. I used plain paraffin, which costs something like 3eur/kg (which is supply that will last me for next 10 years), so nothing fancy for 100s of euros. Cleaning new chain and degreesing takes little longer, but that's just once. Then dip into wax, and you are good to go for some 300-400km (on mtb). Then wipe, dip in wax again and let it cool for another 300-400km. On the end of season, my chain with more km and about 20% more height meters then normally, was stretched for 0.10%, which means, if my frame wouldn't be replaced, and I was forced to move to 1x12speed, chain would be good for another 2 seasons, at least.
And nicest thing with this is, it's perfectly clean all the time. After those 300-400km, when you take it off to wax it again, you can do this without gloves and your hands are clean. All cogs on cassette are clean, chain is clean, derrailour jockeys are clea and front chainring is clean, so that's even more important then chain life

Been doing this with road chains and a hot pot for 15 years now - and if you use ski wax instead of paraffin it doesn't flake off in the cold.

#reducereuserecycle
#stopthrowingawayscrapings
#stopwastingfiberlene

 

[Rudi Riet]

@Primoz, I hear you about the wax option. Sadly my tiny apartment doesn't have space for even a small crock pot for chain waxing - at least not without some serious purging of things (and our household is fairly committed to not being in extra stuff). I found slightly less chain wear when I used wax on my chains about 10 years ago (when I had use of a space where I could store a wax setup). I may switch back at some point but for now I've found great drivetrain longevity with high quality drip lubes, fastidious cleaning, and regular chain replacement.

@cantunamunch: nice tip on the ski wax for the colder months. Seems like a good way to use the wax "flavors" that aren't as regularly in the rotation.

Also, one other consideration for parts shortages: raw materials (especially steel, slightly less aluminum) are in short supply worldwide right now. So if a component maker can't get the raw materials to make cogs, cables, chains, screws, rivets, etc. they're somewhat... screwed.

And for clarification: Giant does the majority of their frame production in Taiwan and are very proud of that fact. They don't do a lot of business with mainland China because of the less-than-friendly politics between the two nations.

 

[cantunamunch]

fastidious cleaning,

You doing the ultrasonic thing yet?

 

[Rudi Riet]

You doing the ultrasonic thing yet?

I'll do it twice a year at my friend's shop, chain and cogs.

If I had the space to build a proper workshop I'd invest in my own ultrasonic cleaner unit. Sadly, that space is not happening in the foreseeable future.

 

[Tony Storaro]

And for clarification: Giant does the majority of their frame production in Taiwan and are very proud of that fact.

Aren't most of the frames made there? Taiwan I mean?

I'd very much like to buy a frame made in Europe, but boy are Time difficult to communicate with...
I do not know why but it seems simply impossible to find a Fluidity frame or persuade them to sell you one.
Very strange company these guys.

 

[scott43]

I'll do it twice a year at my friend's shop, chain and cogs.

If I had the space to build a proper workshop I'd invest in my own ultrasonic cleaner unit. Sadly, that space is not happening in the foreseeable future.

I swore never to clean another chain..... Might have to change that is chains are as scarce as honest people in parliament...

 

[Tom K.]

Nope. Mid-tier fish like Scott and Jamis are taking it on the nose with the 900 pound gorillas of the industry - Trek, Specialized, Giant, Cannondale - using their huge footprint and brand appeal/awareness to stockpile OEM components.

Trek's a year out on many models due to component shortages. If they're also stockpiling components, while not delivering bikes to eager customers, that would truly be cutting off your nose to spite your face.

If you guys want long-lasting chain lube, without the silly complication of melting a vat of wax, etc., try Smoove. My observations indicate it may suck up a watt or two of power but the stuff lasts forever. I can get 14-16 hours out of it in mtb service. I pedal hard, and I've tried everything, and nothing else comes close. Closest is Squirt, at maybe 6-8 hours.

 

[Erik Timmerman]

Aren't most of the frames made there? Taiwan I mean?

A lot of them are from Taiwan, but it has gotten more diverse than that. I'm seeing a lot of Made in Vietnam, and Cambodia among others.